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Serie A

Referee: D Doveri

Fiorentina

T T U T U

1–0

Full-time

Spal

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Spal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,8

This season — Serie A · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 20%

22%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

56%

39%

Both score Ø 58%

72%

44%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%

11 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 15. · Spal 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	19	14	4	1	+24	46
2	Juventus	18	14	3	1	+18	45
3	Lazio	18	13	3	2	+24	42
4	Atalanta	19	10	5	4	+23	35
5	Roma	18	10	5	3	+14	35
6	Cagliari	19	8	5	6	+4	29
7	Parma	18	7	4	7	-1	25
8	Milan	19	7	4	8	-6	25
9	Napoli	19	6	6	7	+2	24
10	Torino	18	7	3	8	-2	24
11	Udinese	19	7	3	9	-11	24
12	Bologna	18	6	5	7	-2	23
13	Verona	17	6	4	7	-1	22
14	Sassuolo	19	5	4	10	-4	19
15	Fiorentina	18	4	6	8	-7	18
16	Sampdoria	18	4	4	10	-13	16
17	Lecce	18	3	6	9	-14	15
18	Brescia	18	4	2	12	-15	14
19	Genoa	18	3	5	10	-17	14
20	Spal	18	3	3	12	-16	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	9	8	1	0	+13	25
2	Lazio	9	7	2	0	+18	23
3	Inter	10	6	3	1	+11	21
4	Roma	9	5	2	2	+5	17
5	Udinese	10	5	2	3	+0	17
6	Atalanta	9	5	1	3	+14	16
7	Cagliari	10	5	1	4	+4	16
8	Parma	9	4	1	4	+3	13
9	Bologna	9	3	3	3	+0	12
10	Verona	9	3	3	3	+0	12
11	Napoli	9	3	2	4	+0	11
12	Torino	9	3	2	4	-3	11
13	Sassuolo	9	3	1	5	+1	10
14	Genoa	9	3	1	5	-2	10
15	Milan	9	2	4	3	-3	10
16	Fiorentina	9	2	3	4	-4	9
17	Sampdoria	9	2	3	4	-5	9
18	Spal	9	2	2	5	-5	8
19	Lecce	9	0	4	5	-7	4
20	Brescia	9	1	1	7	-10	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	9	8	1	0	+13	25
2	Juventus	9	6	2	1	+5	20
3	Atalanta	10	5	4	1	+9	19
4	Lazio	9	6	1	2	+6	19
5	Roma	9	5	3	1	+9	18
6	Milan	10	5	0	5	-3	15
7	Napoli	10	3	4	3	+2	13
8	Torino	9	4	1	4	+1	13
9	Cagliari	9	3	4	2	+0	13
10	Parma	9	3	3	3	-4	12
11	Bologna	9	3	2	4	-2	11
12	Lecce	9	3	2	4	-7	11
13	Verona	8	3	1	4	-1	10
14	Brescia	9	3	1	5	-5	10
15	Fiorentina	9	2	3	4	-3	9
16	Sassuolo	10	2	3	5	-5	9
17	Sampdoria	9	2	1	6	-8	7
18	Udinese	9	2	1	6	-11	7
19	Spal	9	1	1	7	-11	4
20	Genoa	9	0	4	5	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.