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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Aston Villa

T T S T S

1–6

Full-time

Man City

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,0

This season — Premier League · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 48%

29%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 79%

71%

86%

Both score Ø 62%

62%

Average goals

3,0

3,8

Scored

1,3

2,7

Conceded

1,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–4

29% Possession 71%

7 Shots 22

1 Shots on target 12

2 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 18. · Man City 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	21	20	1	0	+36	61
2	Leicester	22	14	3	5	+26	45
3	Man City	21	14	2	5	+32	44
4	Chelsea	22	12	3	7	+10	39
5	Man United	22	9	7	6	+11	34
6	Sheffield United	22	8	8	6	+3	32
7	Wolves	22	7	10	5	+3	31
8	Tottenham	22	8	6	8	+5	30
9	Crystal Palace	22	7	8	7	-4	29
10	Arsenal	22	6	10	6	-2	28
11	Everton	22	8	4	10	-7	28
12	Southampton	22	8	4	10	-12	28
13	Newcastle	22	7	5	10	-13	26
14	Brighton	22	6	6	10	-5	24
15	Burnley	22	7	3	12	-13	24
16	West Ham	21	6	4	11	-8	22
17	Watford	22	5	7	10	-14	22
18	Aston Villa	21	6	3	12	-10	21
19	Bournemouth	22	5	5	12	-15	20
20	Norwich	22	3	5	14	-23	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	11	0	0	+20	33
2	Man City	11	8	1	2	+19	25
3	Leicester	11	7	2	2	+9	23
4	Man United	11	6	4	1	+14	22
5	Tottenham	11	6	2	3	+10	20
6	Everton	11	6	2	3	+2	20
7	Chelsea	11	5	2	4	+4	17
8	Sheffield United	11	5	2	4	+3	17
9	Wolves	11	4	5	2	+2	17
10	Brighton	11	4	4	3	+3	16
11	Arsenal	11	4	4	3	+0	16
12	Crystal Palace	11	4	4	3	+0	16
13	Newcastle	11	4	4	3	-1	16
14	Burnley	11	5	0	6	-3	15
15	Aston Villa	10	4	2	4	-1	14
16	Watford	11	3	4	4	-3	13
17	Southampton	11	3	2	6	-14	11
18	West Ham	10	3	1	6	-3	10
19	Bournemouth	11	2	4	5	-7	10
20	Norwich	11	2	3	6	-8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	9	1	0	+16	28
2	Leicester	11	7	1	3	+17	22
3	Chelsea	11	7	1	3	+6	22
4	Man City	10	6	1	3	+13	19
5	Southampton	11	5	2	4	+2	17
6	Sheffield United	11	3	6	2	+0	15
7	Wolves	11	3	5	3	+1	14
8	Crystal Palace	11	3	4	4	-4	13
9	Arsenal	11	2	6	3	-2	12
10	Man United	11	3	3	5	-3	12
11	West Ham	11	3	3	5	-5	12
12	Tottenham	11	2	4	5	-5	10
13	Bournemouth	11	3	1	7	-8	10
14	Newcastle	11	3	1	7	-12	10
15	Burnley	11	2	3	6	-10	9
16	Watford	11	2	3	6	-11	9
17	Brighton	11	2	2	7	-8	8
18	Everton	11	2	2	7	-9	8
19	Aston Villa	11	2	1	8	-9	7
20	Norwich	11	1	2	8	-15	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.