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Serie A

Referee: Maurizio Mariani

Lecce

T T S T S

3–4

Full-time

Parma

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

3,2

3,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

This season — Serie A · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 30%

24%

35%

Points per game

0,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

76%

57%

Both score Ø 65%

68%

62%

Average goals

3,5

2,9

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

2,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

50% Possession 50%

12 Shots 18

8 Shots on target 11

2 Blocked shots 1

7 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

3 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 18. · Parma 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	38	26	5	7	+33	83
2	Inter	38	24	10	4	+45	82
3	Atalanta	38	23	9	6	+50	78
4	Lazio	38	24	6	8	+37	78
5	Roma	38	21	7	10	+26	70
6	Milan	38	19	9	10	+17	66
7	Napoli	38	18	8	12	+11	62
8	Sassuolo	37	14	9	14	+7	51
9	Fiorentina	38	12	13	13	+3	49
10	Verona	37	12	13	12	-1	49
11	Parma	37	13	7	17	-2	46
12	Bologna	37	12	10	15	-13	46
13	Cagliari	38	11	12	15	-4	45
14	Udinese	37	11	9	17	-15	42
15	Sampdoria	38	12	6	20	-17	42
16	Torino	37	11	6	20	-22	39
17	Genoa	37	9	9	19	-29	36
18	Lecce	37	9	8	20	-32	35
19	Brescia	38	6	7	25	-44	25
20	Spal	38	5	5	28	-50	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	19	16	2	1	+29	50
2	Lazio	19	14	3	2	+29	45
3	Inter	19	11	6	2	+23	39
4	Atalanta	19	12	2	5	+25	38
5	Roma	19	10	4	5	+9	34
6	Milan	19	9	6	4	+11	33
7	Napoli	19	10	3	6	+7	33
8	Verona	19	9	5	5	+4	32
9	Sassuolo	18	8	3	7	+12	27
10	Cagliari	19	7	4	8	+4	25
11	Torino	19	7	4	8	-7	25
12	Udinese	19	6	6	7	-5	24
13	Parma	19	7	2	10	+2	23
14	Fiorentina	19	5	8	6	+0	23
15	Bologna	18	5	7	6	-4	22
16	Sampdoria	19	6	4	9	-5	22
17	Genoa	18	6	1	11	-10	19
18	Lecce	18	4	5	9	-10	17
19	Brescia	19	3	5	11	-13	14
20	Spal	19	2	4	13	-24	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	19	13	4	2	+22	43
2	Atalanta	19	11	7	1	+25	40
3	Roma	19	11	3	5	+17	36
4	Lazio	19	10	3	6	+8	33
5	Milan	19	10	3	6	+6	33
6	Juventus	19	10	3	6	+4	33
7	Napoli	19	8	5	6	+4	29
8	Fiorentina	19	7	5	7	+3	26
9	Sassuolo	19	6	6	7	-5	24
10	Bologna	19	7	3	9	-9	24
11	Parma	18	6	5	7	-4	23
12	Cagliari	19	4	8	7	-8	20
13	Sampdoria	19	6	2	11	-12	20
14	Udinese	18	5	3	10	-10	18
15	Lecce	19	5	3	11	-22	18
16	Verona	18	3	8	7	-5	17
17	Genoa	19	3	8	8	-19	17
18	Torino	18	4	2	12	-15	14
19	Brescia	19	3	2	14	-31	11
20	Spal	19	3	1	15	-26	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.