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Serie A

Referee: F La Penna

Parma

T S T T T

2–1

Full-time

Monza

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Parma Monza

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

4,2

2,8

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

2,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 12%

18%

Points per game

0,9

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

71%

41%

Both score Ø 71%

82%

59%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

1,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,36 xG 2,63

44% Possession 56%

9 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 5

16 Free kicks against 21

3 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Parma 15. · Monza 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	17	13	1	3	+23	+15.2	40
2	Napoli	17	12	2	3	+14	+10.0	38
3	Inter	16	11	4	1	+27	+15.6	37
4	Lazio	17	11	1	5	+8	+12.8	34
5	Fiorentina	16	9	4	3	+16	+8.4	31
6	Juventus	17	7	10	0	+15	+11.5	31
7	Bologna	16	7	7	2	+5	+3.2	28
8	Milan	16	7	5	4	+9	+10.2	26
9	Udinese	17	7	2	8	-5	-8.6	23
10	Roma	17	5	4	8	+0	+1.7	19
11	Empoli	17	4	7	6	-3	-9.8	19
12	Torino	17	5	4	8	-5	-7.5	19
13	Genoa	17	3	7	7	-12	-9.7	16
14	Lecce	17	4	4	9	-18	-9.1	16
15	Parma	17	3	6	8	-10	-11.7	15
16	Como	17	3	6	8	-12	-1.3	15
17	Verona	17	5	0	12	-19	-11.5	15
18	Cagliari	17	3	5	9	-12	-2.5	14
19	Venezia	17	3	4	10	-13	-9.0	13
20	Monza	17	1	7	9	-8	-7.8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	8	7	0	1	+14	+8.2	21
2	Inter	9	6	2	1	+11	+7.6	20
3	Lazio	8	6	1	1	+5	+9.2	19
4	Napoli	8	6	0	2	+6	+7.9	18
5	Fiorentina	8	5	2	1	+8	+7.8	17
6	Milan	8	4	3	1	+9	+7.1	15
7	Roma	9	5	0	4	+8	+5.6	15
8	Juventus	9	3	6	0	+6	+8.0	15
9	Bologna	7	3	4	0	+5	+4.8	13
10	Udinese	8	4	0	4	-2	-4.2	12
11	Lecce	9	3	3	3	-8	-0.6	12
12	Venezia	8	3	1	4	-1	+2.9	10
13	Como	7	2	3	2	-3	+0.7	9
14	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-7	-0.1	9
15	Verona	9	3	0	6	-11	-4.5	9
16	Parma	9	2	2	5	-3	-3.4	8
17	Torino	8	2	2	4	-3	-5.9	8
18	Empoli	8	1	4	3	-4	-3.1	7
19	Genoa	10	0	6	4	-7	-4.9	6
20	Monza	9	0	3	6	-6	-3.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	9	6	2	1	+8	+2.1	20
2	Atalanta	9	6	1	2	+9	+6.9	19
3	Inter	7	5	2	0	+16	+8.0	17
4	Juventus	8	4	4	0	+9	+3.4	16
5	Lazio	9	5	0	4	+3	+3.5	15
6	Bologna	9	4	3	2	+0	-1.6	15
7	Fiorentina	8	4	2	2	+8	+0.5	14
8	Empoli	9	3	3	3	+1	-6.7	12
9	Milan	8	3	2	3	+0	+3.1	11
10	Torino	9	3	2	4	-2	-1.5	11
11	Udinese	9	3	2	4	-3	-4.5	11
12	Genoa	7	3	1	3	-5	-4.8	10
13	Monza	8	1	4	3	-2	-4.2	7
14	Parma	8	1	4	3	-7	-8.3	7
15	Verona	8	2	0	6	-8	-7.0	6
16	Como	10	1	3	6	-9	-2.0	6
17	Cagliari	8	1	2	5	-5	-2.4	5
18	Roma	8	0	4	4	-8	-3.9	4
19	Lecce	8	1	1	6	-10	-8.5	4
20	Venezia	9	0	3	6	-12	-11.9	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.