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Serie A

Referee: M Mariani

Lecce

T U S U T

2–1

Full-time

Monza

T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Monza

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

0,8

0,5

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 14%

20%

Points per game

0,9

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 40%

27%

53%

Average goals

2,3

2,1

Scored

0,5

0,9

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,46 xG 0,61

45% Possession 55%

11 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 7

4 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 16. · Monza 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	16	12	1	3	+22	+15.1	37
2	Napoli	16	11	2	3	+13	+9.7	35
3	Inter	14	9	4	1	+19	+12.7	31
4	Fiorentina	14	9	4	1	+18	+7.6	31
5	Lazio	15	10	1	4	+13	+13.4	31
6	Juventus	16	6	10	0	+14	+11.0	28
7	Milan	14	6	4	4	+8	+9.2	22
8	Bologna	14	5	7	2	+2	+1.3	22
9	Udinese	16	6	2	8	-6	-7.5	20
10	Empoli	16	4	7	5	-2	-9.8	19
11	Torino	16	5	4	7	-3	-6.0	19
12	Roma	15	4	4	7	-3	-2.5	16
13	Parma	15	3	6	6	-4	-6.0	15
14	Genoa	15	3	6	6	-11	-8.5	15
15	Cagliari	16	3	5	8	-11	-2.8	14
16	Lecce	15	3	4	8	-18	-8.8	13
17	Como	15	2	6	7	-12	-1.0	12
18	Verona	15	4	0	11	-19	-12.0	12
19	Monza	15	1	7	7	-6	-6.4	10
20	Venezia	16	2	4	10	-14	-8.7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lazio	7	6	1	0	+11	+11.0	19
2	Atalanta	7	6	0	1	+13	+8.2	18
3	Napoli	8	6	0	2	+6	+7.9	18
4	Inter	8	5	2	1	+9	+6.4	17
5	Fiorentina	7	5	2	0	+9	+6.7	17
6	Juventus	9	3	6	0	+6	+8.0	15
7	Milan	7	4	2	1	+9	+6.3	14
8	Roma	8	4	0	4	+3	+0.5	12
9	Udinese	8	4	0	4	-2	-4.2	12
10	Bologna	6	2	4	0	+4	+4.3	10
11	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-7	-0.1	9
12	Lecce	7	2	3	2	-8	-0.3	9
13	Verona	8	3	0	5	-10	-4.4	9
14	Torino	7	2	2	3	-1	-4.5	8
15	Parma	8	2	2	4	-2	-2.7	8
16	Venezia	7	2	1	4	-2	+3.2	7
17	Empoli	8	1	4	3	-4	-3.1	7
18	Como	6	1	3	2	-5	-0.2	6
19	Genoa	9	0	6	3	-6	-4.5	6
20	Monza	8	0	3	5	-5	-3.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	9	6	1	2	+9	+6.9	19
2	Napoli	8	5	2	1	+7	+1.8	17
3	Inter	6	4	2	0	+10	+6.3	14
4	Fiorentina	7	4	2	1	+9	+0.9	14
5	Juventus	7	3	4	0	+8	+3.0	13
6	Lazio	8	4	0	4	+2	+2.4	12
7	Empoli	8	3	3	2	+2	-6.7	12
8	Bologna	8	3	3	2	-2	-3.1	12
9	Torino	9	3	2	4	-2	-1.5	11
10	Genoa	6	3	0	3	-5	-4.0	9
11	Milan	7	2	2	3	-1	+3.0	8
12	Udinese	8	2	2	4	-4	-3.3	8
13	Monza	7	1	4	2	-1	-3.4	7
14	Parma	7	1	4	2	-2	-3.2	7
15	Como	9	1	3	5	-7	-0.8	6
16	Cagliari	7	1	2	4	-4	-2.7	5
17	Roma	7	0	4	3	-6	-3.0	4
18	Lecce	8	1	1	6	-10	-8.5	4
19	Verona	7	1	0	6	-9	-7.7	3
20	Venezia	9	0	3	6	-12	-11.9	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.