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Serie A

Referee: Valerio Crezzini

Napoli

S S S S T

3–2

Full-time

Pisa

S U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Pisa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,3

Scored

2,0

0,3

Conceded

0,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,08 xG 2,61

64% Possession 36%

18 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 6

8 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 3. · Pisa 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+4	+0.9	10
2	Milan	4	3	0	1	+5	+5.2	9
3	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.5	9
4	Roma	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.8	9
5	Atalanta	4	2	2	0	+6	+3.5	8
6	Cremonese	4	2	2	0	+2	-1.7	8
7	Como	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.9	7
8	Cagliari	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.5	7
9	Udinese	4	2	1	1	-1	-1.2	7
10	Inter	4	2	0	2	+4	+2.7	6
11	Bologna	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.3	6
12	Torino	4	1	1	2	-7	-2.3	4
13	Lazio	4	1	0	3	+0	+1.6	3
14	Sassuolo	4	1	0	3	-3	-3.4	3
15	Verona	4	0	3	1	-4	-1.1	3
16	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-2	-0.9	2
17	Fiorentina	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.8	2
18	Parma	4	0	2	2	-4	-0.3	2
19	Pisa	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.0	1
20	Lecce	4	0	1	3	-6	-4.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	3	2	0	1	+5	+2.4	6
2	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.5	6
3	Bologna	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.5	6
4	Atalanta	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.0	4
5	Cagliari	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
6	Como	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.6	4
7	Cremonese	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.3	4
8	Lazio	2	1	0	1	+3	+3.1	3
9	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
10	Milan	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.5	3
11	Roma	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
12	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
13	Verona	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.3	2
14	Parma	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
15	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
16	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.9	1
17	Torino	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.2	1
18	Pisa	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
19	Fiorentina	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.4	0
20	Lecce	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.6	6
2	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.5	6
3	Udinese	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.3	6
4	Roma	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
5	Atalanta	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.6	4
6	Cremonese	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.9	4
7	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
8	Como	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.3	3
9	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
10	Torino	2	1	0	1	-4	-1.1	3
11	Fiorentina	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.6	2
12	Pisa	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
13	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
14	Lecce	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.8	1
15	Verona	2	0	1	1	-4	-3.4	1
16	Parma	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.2	1
17	Inter	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
18	Sassuolo	2	0	0	2	-2	-3.0	0
19	Bologna	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.8	0
20	Lazio	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.