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Primeira Liga

Referee: Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho

Sp Lisbon

S S T S S

3–0

Full-time

Moreirense

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,0

2,5

Scored

3,2

1,8

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 80%

80%

Points per game

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

80%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

3,8

2,4

Scored

3,0

1,6

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

4,65 xG 0,16

61% Possession 39%

25 Shots 4

14 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 10

6 Corners 4

16 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 4. · Moreirense 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+14	+9.2	18
2	Benfica	5	4	1	0	+8	+5.8	13
3	Gil Vicente	6	4	1	1	+5	+2.5	13
4	Sp Lisbon	5	4	0	1	+11	+7.7	12
5	Moreirense	5	4	0	1	+4	+2.4	12
6	Famalicao	6	3	2	1	+4	+0.1	11
7	Sp Braga	6	2	3	1	+5	+3.4	9
8	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	-2	-1.6	8
9	Santa Clara	6	2	2	2	-2	+0.7	8
10	Arouca	6	2	2	2	-5	-6.0	8
11	Casa Pia	6	2	1	3	-4	-5.1	7
12	Estoril	6	1	2	3	-2	-4.5	5
13	Estrela	6	0	4	2	-3	-0.9	4
14	Alverca	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.5	4
15	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.2	4
16	Rio Ave	5	0	3	2	-5	-2.1	3
17	Tondela	6	0	2	4	-8	-2.4	2
18	AVS	6	0	1	5	-10	-4.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+8	+6.4	9
2	Moreirense	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.8	9
3	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.9	6
4	Guimaraes	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.7	5
5	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.2	4
6	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.2	4
7	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+2	-1.4	4
8	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.9	4
9	Arouca	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.1	4
10	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.1	4
11	Sp Lisbon	2	1	0	1	+5	+2.0	3
12	Alverca	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.0	3
13	Tondela	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.8	2
14	Rio Ave	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.3	2
15	Estrela	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.6	1
16	Casa Pia	3	0	1	2	-4	-4.2	1
17	Nacional	3	0	0	3	-6	-0.4	0
18	AVS	3	0	0	3	-6	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.6	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.9	9
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.5	9
4	Gil Vicente	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.6	7
5	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.5	7
6	Casa Pia	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.9	6
7	Sp Braga	3	1	2	0	+3	+0.2	5
8	Nacional	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.8	4
9	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.4	4
10	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-5	-3.9	4
11	Estrela	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.3	3
12	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.6	3
13	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.3	3
14	Alverca	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.5	1
15	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.2	1
16	Estoril	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.7	1
17	AVS	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.6	1
18	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.