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Ligue 1

Referee: B Dechepy

Toulouse

S S T S S

0–1

Full-time

Lens

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lens

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

2,0

2,3

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 49%

38%

59%

Points per game

1,3

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

66%

50%

Both score Ø 56%

59%

53%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,63 xG 1,17

46% Possession 54%

9 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 0

2 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 13. · Lens 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	33	24	3	6	+42	+2.3	75
2	Marseille	33	21	7	5	+29	+9.0	70
3	Lens	32	19	9	4	+29	+7.2	66
4	Monaco	33	18	7	8	+16	+3.4	61
5	Lille	33	17	8	8	+20	+13.2	59
6	Rennes	33	17	5	11	+19	+2.7	56
7	Lyon	33	15	8	10	+15	+0.7	53
8	Clermont	33	14	7	12	-7	-0.8	49
9	Nice	33	12	12	9	+9	+6.1	48
10	Lorient	33	13	9	11	+1	-3.9	48
11	Reims	33	11	14	8	+5	+9.6	47
12	Montpellier	33	13	4	16	+0	-0.5	43
13	Toulouse	32	12	5	15	-6	+0.8	41
14	Auxerre	33	8	9	16	-24	-2.5	33
15	Strasbourg	33	7	11	15	-11	+0.9	32
16	Nantes	32	6	14	12	-11	-4.9	32
17	Brest	32	7	11	14	-13	-8.9	32
18	Troyes	33	4	10	19	-29	-18.1	22
19	Ajaccio	33	6	4	23	-39	-4.8	22
20	Angers	33	3	5	25	-45	-11.3	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	16	14	1	1	+23	+1.8	43
2	Rennes	17	13	0	4	+23	+4.4	39
3	Paris SG	17	12	2	3	+16	-1.2	38
4	Lille	17	11	4	2	+13	+9.7	37
5	Marseille	17	9	4	4	+10	+6.1	31
6	Monaco	17	9	2	6	+5	-0.6	29
7	Lyon	16	7	5	4	+10	+2.2	26
8	Reims	16	7	5	4	+6	+10.2	26
9	Lorient	16	7	4	5	+5	+2.7	25
10	Clermont	17	7	3	7	-11	+1.8	24
11	Montpellier	17	7	2	8	+1	-0.4	23
12	Toulouse	16	6	4	6	+1	+2.5	22
13	Nice	16	5	6	5	+3	+1.8	21
14	Auxerre	16	5	6	5	-7	+2.0	21
15	Nantes	16	4	8	4	-2	+0.1	20
16	Strasbourg	17	4	6	7	-3	+4.4	18
17	Brest	15	4	5	6	-5	-2.2	17
18	Troyes	16	1	9	6	-9	-9.0	12
19	Ajaccio	16	3	2	11	-16	+0.7	11
20	Angers	17	2	3	12	-16	-3.5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	16	12	3	1	+19	+2.9	39
2	Paris SG	16	12	1	3	+26	+3.5	37
3	Monaco	16	9	5	2	+11	+4.0	32
4	Nice	17	7	6	4	+6	+4.3	27
5	Lyon	17	8	3	6	+5	-1.5	27
6	Clermont	16	7	4	5	+4	-2.7	25
7	Lens	16	5	8	3	+6	+5.3	23
8	Lorient	17	6	5	6	-4	-6.6	23
9	Lille	16	6	4	6	+7	+3.5	22
10	Reims	17	4	9	4	-1	-0.6	21
11	Montpellier	16	6	2	8	-1	-0.1	20
12	Toulouse	16	6	1	9	-7	-1.7	19
13	Rennes	16	4	5	7	-4	-1.7	17
14	Brest	17	3	6	8	-8	-6.7	15
15	Strasbourg	16	3	5	8	-8	-3.6	14
16	Nantes	16	2	6	8	-9	-5.0	12
17	Auxerre	17	3	3	11	-17	-4.5	12
18	Ajaccio	17	3	2	12	-23	-5.5	11
19	Troyes	17	3	1	13	-20	-9.1	10
20	Angers	16	1	2	13	-29	-7.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.