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Ligue 1

Referee: F Batta

Montpellier

U S S S U

1–2

Full-time

Toulouse

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,8

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 36%

38%

34%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

59%

66%

Both score Ø 57%

55%

59%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,86 xG 2,04

51% Possession 49%

16 Shots 15

8 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 7

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 19

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 11. · Toulouse 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	30	22	3	5	+41	+4.3	69
2	Lens	30	18	9	3	+28	+6.0	63
3	Marseille	29	18	6	5	+25	+2.0	60
4	Monaco	29	17	6	6	+21	+3.9	57
5	Lille	30	15	7	8	+16	+8.8	52
6	Rennes	30	15	5	10	+15	-1.3	50
7	Lyon	30	13	8	9	+14	+1.2	47
8	Reims	29	11	13	5	+11	+10.3	46
9	Nice	30	11	12	7	+10	+3.7	45
10	Lorient	29	12	8	9	+2	-3.3	44
11	Montpellier	29	11	4	14	-3	+0.8	37
12	Clermont	29	10	7	12	-12	-4.1	37
13	Toulouse	29	10	5	14	-7	+1.1	35
14	Nantes	29	6	12	11	-10	-2.8	30
15	Brest	29	6	9	14	-14	-7.5	27
16	Strasbourg	30	5	11	14	-14	-0.3	26
17	Auxerre	29	6	8	15	-27	-0.1	26
18	Troyes	29	4	9	16	-24	-11.4	21
19	Ajaccio	29	6	3	20	-31	-2.4	21
20	Angers	30	3	5	22	-41	-8.6	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	15	13	1	1	+20	+1.2	40
2	Paris SG	15	11	2	2	+16	+0.5	35
3	Rennes	15	11	0	4	+18	+0.7	33
4	Lille	15	9	4	2	+9	+6.8	31
5	Lyon	15	7	5	3	+11	+3.2	26
6	Monaco	15	8	2	5	+7	-0.5	26
7	Reims	14	7	4	3	+8	+7.5	25
8	Marseille	15	7	4	4	+7	+0.6	25
9	Lorient	14	7	3	4	+6	+3.7	24
10	Toulouse	15	6	4	5	+2	+3.6	22
11	Nice	15	5	6	4	+4	+1.5	21
12	Montpellier	15	6	2	7	+1	+0.1	20
13	Nantes	14	4	6	4	-2	+0.5	18
14	Clermont	15	5	3	7	-13	-0.8	18
15	Auxerre	14	4	5	5	-8	+1.9	17
16	Strasbourg	15	3	6	6	-4	+2.7	15
17	Brest	14	3	5	6	-6	-2.7	14
18	Troyes	14	1	9	4	-6	-5.5	12
19	Ajaccio	14	3	1	10	-13	+0.7	10
20	Angers	16	2	3	11	-15	-3.7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	14	11	2	1	+18	+1.5	35
2	Paris SG	15	11	1	3	+25	+3.7	34
3	Monaco	14	9	4	1	+14	+4.4	31
4	Nice	15	6	6	3	+6	+2.2	24
5	Lens	15	5	8	2	+8	+4.7	23
6	Lille	15	6	3	6	+7	+2.0	21
7	Lyon	15	6	3	6	+3	-2.0	21
8	Reims	15	4	9	2	+3	+2.8	21
9	Lorient	15	5	5	5	-4	-7.0	20
10	Clermont	14	5	4	5	+1	-3.2	19
11	Rennes	15	4	5	6	-3	-2.0	17
12	Montpellier	14	5	2	7	-4	+0.7	17
13	Brest	15	3	4	8	-8	-4.8	13
14	Toulouse	14	4	1	9	-9	-2.5	13
15	Nantes	15	2	6	7	-8	-3.4	12
16	Strasbourg	15	2	5	8	-10	-3.0	11
17	Ajaccio	15	3	2	10	-18	-3.1	11
18	Troyes	15	3	0	12	-18	-5.9	9
19	Auxerre	15	2	3	10	-19	-2.0	9
20	Angers	14	1	2	11	-26	-4.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.