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Ligue 1

Referee: M Bollengier

Lorient

S U T U T

0–1

Full-time

Toulouse

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 37%

39%

35%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

61%

68%

Both score Ø 63%

65%

61%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,4

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,57 xG 1,13

53% Possession 47%

9 Shots 13

1 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lorient 10. · Toulouse 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	32	24	3	5	+44	+3.4	75
2	Lens	32	19	9	4	+29	+7.2	66
3	Marseille	31	19	7	5	+27	+5.8	64
4	Monaco	32	18	7	7	+20	+4.2	61
5	Lille	32	16	8	8	+17	+12.0	56
6	Rennes	31	16	5	10	+18	+1.3	53
7	Lyon	31	14	8	9	+15	+2.2	50
8	Reims	32	11	14	7	+6	+10.5	47
9	Nice	31	11	12	8	+9	+3.2	45
10	Lorient	31	12	9	10	+0	-4.5	45
11	Clermont	31	12	7	12	-9	-1.4	43
12	Toulouse	31	11	5	15	-7	+0.2	38
13	Montpellier	31	11	4	16	-5	-1.1	37
14	Auxerre	32	8	9	15	-23	-0.4	33
15	Strasbourg	32	7	11	14	-10	+0.3	32
16	Nantes	31	6	13	12	-11	-4.7	31
17	Brest	31	7	10	14	-13	-9.2	31
18	Troyes	31	4	9	18	-28	-15.7	21
19	Ajaccio	31	6	3	22	-36	-3.3	21
20	Angers	32	3	5	24	-43	-10.2	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	16	14	1	1	+23	+1.8	43
2	Paris SG	16	12	2	2	+18	-0.1	38
3	Rennes	16	12	0	4	+21	+3.3	36
4	Lille	16	10	4	2	+10	+8.5	34
5	Monaco	16	9	2	5	+9	+0.2	29
6	Marseille	16	8	4	4	+9	+4.0	28
7	Lyon	15	7	5	3	+11	+3.2	26
8	Reims	16	7	5	4	+6	+10.2	26
9	Lorient	15	7	4	4	+6	+3.2	25
10	Toulouse	16	6	4	6	+1	+2.5	22
11	Nice	15	5	6	4	+4	+1.5	21
12	Auxerre	16	5	6	5	-7	+2.0	21
13	Clermont	16	6	3	7	-12	+1.0	21
14	Montpellier	16	6	2	8	+0	-0.1	20
15	Nantes	15	4	7	4	-2	+0.3	19
16	Strasbourg	16	4	6	6	-2	+3.9	18
17	Brest	15	4	5	6	-5	-2.2	17
18	Troyes	15	1	9	5	-8	-6.4	12
19	Ajaccio	15	3	1	11	-16	+1.0	10
20	Angers	17	2	3	12	-16	-3.5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	12	1	3	+26	+3.5	37
2	Marseille	15	11	3	1	+18	+1.9	36
3	Monaco	16	9	5	2	+11	+4.0	32
4	Nice	16	6	6	4	+5	+1.7	24
5	Lyon	16	7	3	6	+4	-1.0	24
6	Lens	16	5	8	3	+6	+5.3	23
7	Lille	16	6	4	6	+7	+3.5	22
8	Clermont	15	6	4	5	+3	-2.4	22
9	Reims	16	4	9	3	+0	+0.2	21
10	Lorient	16	5	5	6	-6	-7.8	20
11	Rennes	15	4	5	6	-3	-2.0	17
12	Montpellier	15	5	2	8	-5	-1.0	17
13	Toulouse	15	5	1	9	-8	-2.3	16
14	Strasbourg	16	3	5	8	-8	-3.6	14
15	Brest	16	3	5	8	-8	-7.0	14
16	Nantes	16	2	6	8	-9	-5.0	12
17	Auxerre	16	3	3	10	-16	-2.4	12
18	Ajaccio	16	3	2	11	-20	-4.3	11
19	Troyes	16	3	0	13	-20	-9.3	9
20	Angers	15	1	2	12	-27	-6.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.