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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Sunderland

U T S U U

0–0

Full-time

Man City

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sunderland Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

33%

100%

Points per game

1,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

1,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 56%

39%

72%

Points per game

1,6

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

33%

72%

Both score Ø 44%

44%

Average goals

2,1

3,3

Scored

1,1

2,4

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,88 xG 2,24

32% Possession 68%

10 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sunderland 7. · Man City 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	19	14	3	2	+25	+21.9	45
2	Man City	18	13	1	4	+26	+15.2	40
3	Aston Villa	19	12	3	4	+7	-5.9	39
4	Liverpool	19	10	3	6	+4	+8.2	33
5	Chelsea	19	8	6	5	+11	+5.6	30
6	Man United	19	8	6	5	+4	+8.4	30
7	Sunderland	18	7	7	4	+2	-9.2	28
8	Everton	19	8	4	7	+0	-5.5	28
9	Crystal Palace	19	7	6	6	+1	+7.5	27
10	Fulham	19	8	3	8	-1	-3.2	27
11	Brentford	18	8	2	8	+2	+2.8	26
12	Newcastle	19	7	5	7	+2	+6.0	26
13	Tottenham	18	7	4	7	+4	-7.2	25
14	Brighton	19	6	7	6	+1	+3.0	25
15	Bournemouth	19	5	8	6	-6	+1.1	23
16	Leeds	19	5	6	8	-7	+0.3	21
17	Nott'm Forest	19	5	3	11	-12	-4.6	18
18	West Ham	19	3	5	11	-17	-12.8	14
19	Burnley	19	3	3	13	-17	-20.3	12
20	Wolves	19	0	3	16	-29	-11.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	10	9	1	0	+21	+13.7	28
2	Man City	9	8	0	1	+19	+11.5	24
3	Aston Villa	9	7	1	1	+8	-1.2	22
4	Brentford	9	6	2	1	+10	+4.6	20
5	Liverpool	10	6	2	2	+5	+6.2	20
6	Sunderland	9	5	4	0	+8	-2.4	19
7	Man United	10	5	3	2	+5	+9.1	18
8	Newcastle	9	5	2	2	+4	+6.0	17
9	Brighton	9	4	4	1	+5	+2.9	16
10	Fulham	9	5	1	3	+5	+1.0	16
11	Bournemouth	9	4	4	1	+5	+6.4	16
12	Leeds	9	4	3	2	+5	+7.3	15
13	Chelsea	10	4	3	3	+4	+4.4	15
14	Everton	9	4	2	3	+1	-0.3	14
15	Crystal Palace	10	2	5	3	-2	+7.4	11
16	Nott'm Forest	10	3	1	6	-5	+2.3	10
17	Tottenham	9	2	2	5	+0	-0.4	8
18	Burnley	10	2	2	6	-5	-8.0	8
19	West Ham	10	2	1	7	-11	-5.4	7
20	Wolves	9	0	1	8	-16	-4.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	9	5	2	2	+4	-6.8	17
2	Arsenal	9	5	2	2	+4	+8.1	17
3	Aston Villa	10	5	2	3	-1	-4.7	17
4	Man City	9	5	1	3	+7	+3.7	16
5	Crystal Palace	9	5	1	3	+3	+0.2	16
6	Chelsea	9	4	3	2	+7	+1.2	15
7	Everton	10	4	2	4	-1	-5.2	14
8	Liverpool	9	4	1	4	-1	+2.0	13
9	Man United	9	3	3	3	-1	-0.7	12
10	Fulham	10	3	2	5	-6	-4.2	11
11	Newcastle	10	2	3	5	-2	+0.1	9
12	Brighton	10	2	3	5	-4	+0.1	9
13	Sunderland	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.9	9
14	Nott'm Forest	9	2	2	5	-7	-6.9	8
15	West Ham	9	1	4	4	-6	-7.4	7
16	Bournemouth	10	1	4	5	-11	-5.3	7
17	Brentford	9	2	0	7	-8	-1.8	6
18	Leeds	10	1	3	6	-12	-7.0	6
19	Burnley	9	1	1	7	-12	-12.3	4
20	Wolves	10	0	2	8	-13	-7.1	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.