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Championship

Referee: Andrew Kitchen

Derby

U S U U T

1–0

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 24/22 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 65%

75%

55%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,22 xG 1,32

32% Possession 68%

7 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 9

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 13. · Middlesbrough 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	24	15	6	3	+29	+19.8	51
2	Ipswich	24	11	8	5	+17	+19.2	41
3	Middlesbrough	22	11	6	5	+5	+6.7	39
4	Millwall	23	11	6	6	-3	+0.5	39
5	Watford	24	10	8	6	+5	+6.2	38
6	Hull	22	11	5	6	+4	-11.4	38
7	Preston	24	9	10	5	+6	-5.9	37
8	Wrexham	25	9	10	6	+5	-5.2	37
9	Bristol City	24	10	6	8	+6	+0.1	36
10	QPR	24	10	5	9	-3	+1.7	35
11	Stoke	24	10	4	10	+6	-6.1	34
12	Leicester	24	9	7	8	+0	-6.2	34
13	Derby	24	8	8	8	+0	-6.2	32
14	Southampton	23	8	7	8	+4	+10.0	31
15	Birmingham	24	8	7	9	+1	+11.3	31
16	West Brom	24	9	4	11	-4	+4.1	31
17	Sheffield United	24	9	2	13	-4	+10.1	29
18	Swansea	24	8	5	11	-6	-6.9	29
19	Blackburn	24	7	6	11	-6	+7.8	27
20	Charlton	23	7	6	10	-7	-9.3	27
21	Portsmouth	23	6	7	10	-9	-6.6	25
22	Oxford	24	5	7	12	-9	-6.8	22
23	Norwich	24	5	6	13	-10	-8.4	21
24	Sheffield Weds	23	1	8	14	-27	-18.4	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	12	9	2	1	+18	+9.5	29
2	Ipswich	12	7	4	1	+12	+15.6	25
3	Watford	12	7	4	1	+8	+6.8	25
4	Middlesbrough	12	7	3	2	+5	+1.7	24
5	Birmingham	12	6	5	1	+13	+14.5	23
6	Wrexham	13	6	5	2	+5	+4.6	23
7	Hull	11	7	2	2	+4	-2.9	23
8	Millwall	12	7	2	3	+1	+3.4	23
9	West Brom	12	6	4	2	+5	+7.8	22
10	Stoke	12	6	2	4	+8	+0.3	20
11	QPR	11	6	2	3	+5	+7.3	20
12	Preston	12	5	5	2	+4	-1.1	20
13	Leicester	12	5	4	3	+3	+1.7	19
14	Southampton	10	5	3	2	+6	+7.5	18
15	Bristol City	12	5	3	4	+5	-0.2	18
16	Portsmouth	13	5	3	5	+0	+1.5	18
17	Swansea	12	5	3	4	-1	-1.6	18
18	Charlton	10	5	2	3	+1	-2.1	17
19	Sheffield United	11	4	2	5	+3	+9.6	14
20	Derby	12	3	5	4	-3	-0.0	14
21	Oxford	12	3	4	5	-4	+0.2	13
22	Norwich	12	3	1	8	-5	+0.3	10
23	Blackburn	12	2	3	7	-7	+5.4	9
24	Sheffield Weds	13	0	4	9	-22	-9.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	12	6	4	2	+11	+10.3	22
2	Derby	12	5	3	4	+3	-6.2	18
3	Bristol City	12	5	3	4	+1	+0.4	18
4	Blackburn	12	5	3	4	+1	+2.5	18
5	Preston	12	4	5	3	+2	-4.8	17
6	Ipswich	12	4	4	4	+5	+3.7	16
7	Millwall	11	4	4	3	-4	-2.9	16
8	Hull	11	4	3	4	+0	-8.6	15
9	Middlesbrough	10	4	3	3	+0	+5.0	15
10	Leicester	12	4	3	5	-3	-7.9	15
11	Sheffield United	13	5	0	8	-7	+0.5	15
12	QPR	13	4	3	6	-8	-5.6	15
13	Wrexham	12	3	5	4	+0	-9.8	14
14	Stoke	12	4	2	6	-2	-6.4	14
15	Southampton	13	3	4	6	-2	+2.5	13
16	Watford	12	3	4	5	-3	-0.6	13
17	Norwich	12	2	5	5	-5	-8.7	11
18	Swansea	12	3	2	7	-5	-5.3	11
19	Charlton	13	2	4	7	-8	-7.3	10
20	Oxford	12	2	3	7	-5	-7.0	9
21	West Brom	12	3	0	9	-9	-3.7	9
22	Birmingham	12	2	2	8	-12	-3.2	8
23	Sheffield Weds	10	1	4	5	-5	-9.3	7
24	Portsmouth	10	1	4	5	-9	-8.2	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.