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Primeira Liga

Referee: Ricardo Baixinho

Rio Ave

S T U U T

1–0

Full-time

Arouca

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,5

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 38%

31%

45%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

34%

31%

Both score Ø 40%

41%

38%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%

11 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 12. · Arouca 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	29	24	2	3	+52	74
2	Porto	29	22	4	3	+43	70
3	Sp Braga	29	22	2	5	+38	68
4	Sp Lisbon	29	19	4	6	+32	61
5	Arouca	29	13	9	7	+0	48
6	Famalicao	29	13	3	13	-4	42
7	Guimaraes	29	12	5	12	-8	41
8	Vizela	29	11	6	12	+2	39
9	Casa Pia	29	11	6	12	-6	39
10	Chaves	29	9	10	10	-5	37
11	Boavista	29	10	7	12	-12	37
12	Rio Ave	29	9	8	12	-5	35
13	Portimonense	29	10	3	16	-13	33
14	Gil Vicente	29	8	7	14	-8	31
15	Estoril	29	7	4	18	-22	25
16	Maritimo	29	6	4	19	-28	22
17	Pacos Ferreira	29	4	5	20	-30	17
18	Santa Clara	29	3	7	19	-26	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	13	1	1	+32	40
2	Porto	14	12	0	2	+28	36
3	Sp Lisbon	14	11	1	2	+28	34
4	Sp Braga	14	10	2	2	+21	32
5	Arouca	15	9	2	4	+5	29
6	Famalicao	15	9	1	5	+5	28
7	Guimaraes	15	8	3	4	+2	27
8	Boavista	15	7	5	3	+1	26
9	Rio Ave	14	7	2	5	+4	23
10	Casa Pia	15	6	3	6	+1	21
11	Portimonense	15	6	3	6	-1	21
12	Vizela	14	5	3	6	+1	18
13	Gil Vicente	14	4	6	4	+0	18
14	Chaves	14	4	5	5	-1	17
15	Maritimo	14	5	2	7	-2	17
16	Estoril	14	4	2	8	-11	14
17	Santa Clara	15	2	5	8	-13	11
18	Pacos Ferreira	15	2	2	11	-18	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	15	12	0	3	+17	36
2	Benfica	14	11	1	2	+20	34
3	Porto	15	10	4	1	+15	34
4	Sp Lisbon	15	8	3	4	+4	27
5	Vizela	15	6	3	6	+1	21
6	Chaves	15	5	5	5	-4	20
7	Arouca	14	4	7	3	-5	19
8	Casa Pia	14	5	3	6	-7	18
9	Famalicao	14	4	2	8	-9	14
10	Guimaraes	14	4	2	8	-10	14
11	Gil Vicente	15	4	1	10	-8	13
12	Rio Ave	15	2	6	7	-9	12
13	Portimonense	14	4	0	10	-12	12
14	Estoril	15	3	2	10	-11	11
15	Boavista	14	3	2	9	-13	11
16	Pacos Ferreira	14	2	3	9	-12	9
17	Santa Clara	14	1	2	11	-13	5
18	Maritimo	15	1	2	12	-26	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.