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Primeira Liga

Referee: Iancu Vasilica

Farense

T T U T S

2–0

Full-time

Arouca

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Farense Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,0

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 22%

33%

11%

Points per game

1,1

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

44%

56%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,97 xG 1,49

39% Possession 61%

7 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 11

7 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Farense 12. · Arouca 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	9	1	0	+13	+11.4	28
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+13	+11.4	25
3	Porto	10	7	1	2	+6	+8.5	22
4	Sp Braga	10	6	2	2	+11	+5.7	20
5	Guimaraes	10	6	1	3	+6	+1.7	19
6	Moreirense	10	5	2	3	+3	-0.6	17
7	Boavista	10	4	3	3	+1	-4.4	15
8	Famalicao	10	4	3	3	+1	-3.7	15
9	Estrela	10	3	2	5	-4	-1.3	11
10	Portimonense	10	3	2	5	-13	-6.2	11
11	Gil Vicente	10	3	1	6	+1	-2.5	10
12	Farense	9	3	1	5	+1	-4.9	10
13	Casa Pia	10	2	4	4	-1	-1.3	10
14	Vizela	10	2	3	5	-5	-1.0	9
15	Rio Ave	10	2	2	6	-7	-1.1	8
16	Estoril	10	2	1	7	-5	-5.0	7
17	Chaves	10	2	1	7	-16	-6.0	7
18	Arouca	9	1	3	5	-5	-0.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	6	0	0	+9	+7.2	18
2	Guimaraes	5	4	0	1	+8	+3.6	12
3	Gil Vicente	5	3	1	1	+8	-0.1	10
4	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+8	+7.6	10
5	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+7	+5.0	10
6	Famalicao	5	3	1	1	+2	-1.6	10
7	Porto	5	3	1	1	+2	+7.9	10
8	Boavista	5	2	2	1	+2	-1.2	8
9	Farense	5	2	1	2	+3	-1.0	7
10	Moreirense	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.3	7
11	Rio Ave	6	2	1	3	-2	+1.7	7
12	Estrela	5	2	0	3	-2	+0.4	6
13	Estoril	4	1	1	2	+0	-0.6	4
14	Chaves	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.6	4
15	Vizela	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.2	4
16	Arouca	5	1	1	3	-3	+1.3	4
17	Portimonense	4	1	1	2	-4	-1.6	4
18	Casa Pia	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	6	5	0	1	+6	+6.4	15
2	Porto	5	4	0	1	+4	+0.6	12
3	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+4	+4.2	10
4	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+3	-1.9	10
5	Moreirense	5	3	1	1	+3	-0.9	10
6	Casa Pia	5	2	2	1	+2	+0.8	8
7	Boavista	5	2	1	2	-1	-3.2	7
8	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.9	7
9	Portimonense	6	2	1	3	-9	-4.6	7
10	Famalicao	5	1	2	2	-1	-2.1	5
11	Estrela	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.8	5
12	Vizela	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.3	5
13	Farense	4	1	0	3	-2	-3.8	3
14	Estoril	6	1	0	5	-5	-4.4	3
15	Chaves	5	1	0	4	-13	-5.3	3
16	Arouca	4	0	2	2	-2	-2.1	2
17	Rio Ave	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.8	1
18	Gil Vicente	5	0	0	5	-7	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.