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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Melo

Arouca

U U U T T

0–2

Full-time

Chaves

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,5

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

4,2

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

3,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

4,2

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,5

3,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,49 xG 1,10

60% Possession 40%

11 Shots 5

2 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 13. · Chaves 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+9	+8.2	19
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+10	+7.5	18
3	Porto	7	5	1	1	+4	+4.5	16
4	Boavista	7	4	2	1	+5	-2.1	14
5	Sp Braga	7	4	1	2	+5	+3.1	13
6	Famalicao	7	3	3	1	+2	-3.2	12
7	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	-1	-0.8	10
8	Casa Pia	6	2	3	1	+3	+0.8	9
9	Portimonense	7	2	2	3	-8	-3.2	8
10	Moreirense	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.0	7
11	Gil Vicente	6	2	0	4	+3	-3.2	6
12	Farense	7	2	0	5	+0	-3.7	6
13	Arouca	6	1	3	2	-1	+0.2	6
14	Rio Ave	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.8	5
15	Vizela	7	1	2	4	-4	-1.2	5
16	Estrela	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.5	5
17	Estoril	6	1	1	4	-3	+1.6	4
18	Chaves	6	0	1	5	-13	-4.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.6	12
2	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+7	+5.2	9
3	Boavista	4	2	2	0	+4	+0.4	8
4	Porto	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.7	7
5	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.0	7
6	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+6	-1.6	6
7	Farense	4	2	0	2	+3	-0.8	6
8	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.0	6
9	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+2	+4.2	4
10	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.3	4
11	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.2	4
12	Arouca	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.2	4
13	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.0	4
14	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.1	3
15	Estrela	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.5	3
16	Casa Pia	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
17	Chaves	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.3	1
18	Portimonense	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+3	-1.1	9
2	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.3	9
3	Porto	4	3	0	1	+2	-0.2	9
4	Casa Pia	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
5	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.7	7
6	Portimonense	4	2	1	1	-3	-1.4	7
7	Boavista	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.5	6
8	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.2	5
9	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.1	4
10	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	-3	-0.8	4
11	Arouca	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.0	2
12	Estrela	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.1	2
13	Vizela	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.3	1
14	Rio Ave	3	0	1	2	-4	-1.9	1
15	Gil Vicente	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.6	0
16	Farense	3	0	0	3	-3	-2.9	0
17	Estoril	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.3	0
18	Chaves	3	0	0	3	-10	-4.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.