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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

Estrela

U T U U U

0–3

Full-time

Farense

U T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Farense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 24%

20%

27%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

47%

53%

Both score Ø 59%

57%

60%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,56 xG 2,47

60% Possession 40%

20 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

11 Corners 4

4 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 15. · Farense 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	31	26	3	2	+60	+38.6	81
2	Benfica	31	24	4	3	+46	+37.1	76
3	Porto	31	19	6	6	+31	+27.6	63
4	Sp Braga	31	19	5	7	+20	+19.5	62
5	Guimaraes	31	18	6	7	+14	+6.0	60
6	Moreirense	31	13	7	11	-2	-0.8	46
7	Arouca	31	13	6	12	+11	+1.9	45
8	Famalicao	31	8	12	11	-6	-10.1	36
9	Casa Pia	31	9	8	14	-11	-11.3	35
10	Estoril	31	9	6	16	-6	-12.2	33
11	Rio Ave	31	5	17	9	-6	+0.8	32
12	Gil Vicente	31	8	8	15	-11	-10.9	32
13	Farense	30	8	7	15	-5	-9.7	31
14	Boavista	31	7	9	15	-22	-17.3	30
15	Estrela	30	6	11	13	-14	-7.6	29
16	Portimonense	31	7	7	17	-32	-21.7	28
17	Chaves	31	5	8	18	-34	-18.1	23
18	Vizela	31	4	10	17	-33	-11.9	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	15	0	0	+40	+25.4	45
2	Benfica	16	14	2	0	+36	+27.7	44
3	Guimaraes	16	11	2	3	+14	+11.3	35
4	Porto	16	10	4	2	+21	+22.5	34
5	Sp Braga	15	9	3	3	+13	+19.9	30
6	Estoril	16	8	1	7	+8	-0.2	25
7	Arouca	15	7	2	6	+2	+0.3	23
8	Gil Vicente	16	5	7	4	+4	-5.4	22
9	Rio Ave	15	5	7	3	+4	+7.1	22
10	Moreirense	15	6	4	5	+0	+0.7	22
11	Famalicao	15	5	6	4	-1	-2.7	21
12	Farense	15	5	4	6	+2	+0.4	19
13	Estrela	15	5	3	7	-3	-1.8	18
14	Boavista	15	4	6	5	-9	-3.4	18
15	Casa Pia	16	3	5	8	-7	-4.4	14
16	Portimonense	16	3	5	8	-13	-10.1	14
17	Chaves	15	3	4	8	-12	-3.9	13
18	Vizela	16	2	5	9	-16	-0.3	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	11	3	2	+20	+13.2	36
2	Benfica	15	10	2	3	+10	+9.5	32
3	Sp Braga	16	10	2	4	+7	-0.4	32
4	Porto	15	9	2	4	+10	+5.2	29
5	Guimaraes	15	7	4	4	+0	-5.3	25
6	Moreirense	16	7	3	6	-2	-1.5	24
7	Arouca	16	6	4	6	+9	+1.6	22
8	Casa Pia	15	6	3	6	-4	-6.8	21
9	Famalicao	16	3	6	7	-5	-7.3	15
10	Portimonense	15	4	2	9	-19	-11.5	14
11	Farense	15	3	3	9	-7	-10.1	12
12	Boavista	16	3	3	10	-13	-13.9	12
13	Estrela	15	1	8	6	-11	-5.8	11
14	Vizela	15	2	5	8	-17	-11.7	11
15	Rio Ave	16	0	10	6	-10	-6.4	10
16	Gil Vicente	15	3	1	11	-15	-5.4	10
17	Chaves	16	2	4	10	-22	-14.2	10
18	Estoril	15	1	5	9	-14	-12.0	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.