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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luís Godinho

Estrela

T S U T U

2–2

Full-time

Rio Ave

U U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 20%

21%

18%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

46%

32%

Both score Ø 52%

54%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,79 xG 0,38

61% Possession 39%

15 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 1

5 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 15. · Rio Ave 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	28	24	2	2	+56	+36.1	74
2	Benfica	28	21	4	3	+39	+33.4	67
3	Porto	29	18	5	6	+30	+27.5	59
4	Sp Braga	29	18	5	6	+21	+19.1	59
5	Guimaraes	29	17	6	6	+16	+7.8	57
6	Moreirense	28	12	7	9	+0	-0.1	43
7	Arouca	28	12	4	12	+10	-1.8	40
8	Famalicao	28	8	11	9	-4	-9.7	35
9	Farense	29	8	7	14	-3	-8.6	31
10	Casa Pia	28	8	7	13	-12	-11.0	31
11	Rio Ave	28	5	14	9	-6	+3.3	29
12	Estoril	29	8	5	16	-7	-11.2	29
13	Boavista	28	7	8	13	-20	-15.3	29
14	Gil Vicente	29	7	7	15	-12	-9.9	28
15	Estrela	28	6	9	13	-14	-8.8	27
16	Portimonense	28	7	5	16	-30	-20.3	26
17	Vizela	28	4	9	15	-31	-10.6	21
18	Chaves	28	4	7	17	-33	-19.6	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	14	0	0	+37	+23.7	42
2	Benfica	14	12	2	0	+31	+25.0	38
3	Porto	15	10	3	2	+21	+22.8	33
4	Guimaraes	15	10	2	3	+13	+11.5	32
5	Sp Braga	14	8	3	3	+12	+18.1	27
6	Estoril	15	7	1	7	+7	+0.3	22
7	Moreirense	14	6	4	4	+1	+0.6	22
8	Gil Vicente	15	5	6	4	+4	-4.5	21
9	Rio Ave	14	5	6	3	+4	+7.6	21
10	Arouca	14	6	2	6	+1	-2.1	20
11	Famalicao	13	5	5	3	+0	-1.8	20
12	Farense	14	5	4	5	+4	+1.5	19
13	Estrela	14	5	2	7	-3	-3.2	17
14	Boavista	14	4	5	5	-9	-3.6	17
15	Portimonense	14	3	4	7	-11	-8.3	13
16	Chaves	14	3	3	8	-12	-4.4	12
17	Casa Pia	14	2	5	7	-8	-3.0	11
18	Vizela	14	2	4	8	-15	-0.8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	10	2	2	+19	+12.4	32
2	Sp Braga	15	10	2	3	+9	+1.0	32
3	Benfica	14	9	2	3	+8	+8.4	29
4	Porto	14	8	2	4	+9	+4.6	26
5	Guimaraes	14	7	4	3	+3	-3.7	25
6	Moreirense	14	6	3	5	-1	-0.8	21
7	Arouca	14	6	2	6	+9	+0.3	20
8	Casa Pia	14	6	2	6	-4	-8.0	20
9	Famalicao	15	3	6	6	-4	-7.9	15
10	Portimonense	14	4	1	9	-19	-12.0	13
11	Farense	15	3	3	9	-7	-10.1	12
12	Boavista	14	3	3	8	-11	-11.8	12
13	Vizela	14	2	5	7	-16	-9.8	11
14	Estrela	14	1	7	6	-11	-5.6	10
15	Rio Ave	14	0	8	6	-10	-4.3	8
16	Estoril	14	1	4	9	-14	-11.5	7
17	Gil Vicente	14	2	1	11	-16	-5.4	7
18	Chaves	14	1	4	9	-21	-15.2	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.