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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Macedo

Sp Lisbon

U T S S S

4–0

Full-time

Rio Ave

U U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,3

2,7

Scored

3,2

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 50%

80%

20%

Points per game

2,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

67%

60%

Both score Ø 57%

47%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,9

Scored

2,8

1,3

Conceded

0,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,26 xG 0,11

59% Possession 41%

23 Shots 5

12 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 8

8 Corners 1

13 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Rio Ave 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	15	14	1	0	+29	+20.0	43
2	Sp Lisbon	15	12	2	1	+34	+24.8	38
3	Benfica	16	10	6	0	+23	+17.0	36
4	Gil Vicente	16	7	6	3	+10	+5.3	27
5	Sp Braga	16	7	5	4	+13	+11.1	26
6	Famalicao	16	6	5	5	+7	+7.4	23
7	Guimaraes	16	6	4	6	-5	-3.1	22
8	Moreirense	15	6	3	6	-3	-6.4	21
9	Estoril	16	5	5	6	+1	-3.3	20
10	Estrela	16	4	6	6	-4	-3.1	18
11	Rio Ave	15	3	8	4	-5	-9.9	17
12	Alverca	16	5	2	9	-11	-2.2	17
13	Nacional	15	4	4	7	-4	-7.8	16
14	Santa Clara	15	4	4	7	-4	+2.6	16
15	Casa Pia	16	3	5	8	-13	-13.6	14
16	Arouca	16	3	5	8	-22	-19.1	14
17	Tondela	15	2	3	10	-18	-6.4	9
18	AVS	15	0	4	11	-28	-13.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	1	0	+12	+9.9	19
2	Sp Lisbon	7	5	1	1	+20	+13.4	16
3	Benfica	8	4	4	0	+10	+11.3	16
4	Estoril	9	4	3	2	+5	-0.4	15
5	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+7	+7.0	14
6	Gil Vicente	7	4	1	2	+4	+3.6	13
7	Moreirense	7	4	1	2	+1	-1.6	13
8	Guimaraes	8	3	3	2	+0	-1.4	12
9	Famalicao	9	3	2	4	+5	+3.5	11
10	Santa Clara	8	3	2	3	+1	+4.8	11
11	Alverca	8	3	1	4	-7	+2.3	10
12	Estrela	8	2	3	3	+1	+4.8	9
13	Arouca	9	2	3	4	-9	-8.0	9
14	Nacional	7	2	0	5	-5	-4.1	6
15	Rio Ave	7	1	3	3	-5	-4.4	6
16	Casa Pia	8	0	4	4	-8	-8.0	4
17	AVS	8	0	3	5	-9	-4.9	3
18	Tondela	7	0	2	5	-8	-3.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	8	8	0	0	+17	+10.1	24
2	Sp Lisbon	8	7	1	0	+14	+11.3	22
3	Benfica	8	6	2	0	+13	+5.7	20
4	Gil Vicente	9	3	5	1	+6	+1.7	14
5	Sp Braga	8	3	3	2	+6	+4.1	12
6	Famalicao	7	3	3	1	+2	+3.9	12
7	Rio Ave	8	2	5	1	+0	-5.5	11
8	Nacional	8	2	4	2	+1	-3.7	10
9	Casa Pia	8	3	1	4	-5	-5.6	10
10	Guimaraes	8	3	1	4	-5	-1.7	10
11	Estrela	8	2	3	3	-5	-7.8	9
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-4	-4.8	8
13	Alverca	8	2	1	5	-4	-4.5	7
14	Tondela	8	2	1	5	-10	-3.2	7
15	Estoril	7	1	2	4	-4	-2.9	5
16	Santa Clara	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.2	5
17	Arouca	7	1	2	4	-13	-11.1	5
18	AVS	7	0	1	6	-19	-8.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.