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Primeira Liga
Referee: Jose Bessa
AVS
T U U U T
1–2
Full-time
Rio Ave
T S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AVS Rio Ave
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
1,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,2
Scored
1,7
1,5
Conceded
1,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Primeira Liga · 12/12 matches
Win Ø 9%
0%
17%
Points per game
0,3
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
67%
58%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,1
2,9
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
2,4
1,7
Goal diff per game
-1,8
-0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,52 xG 2,44
35% Possession 65%
9 Shots 17
5 Shots on target 8
4 Blocked shots 5
6 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 11
1 Offside 6
16 Free kicks against 16
6 Yellow cards 6
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match AVS 18. · Rio Ave 12.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Porto 12 11 1 0 +22 +15.1 34
2 Sp Lisbon 13 10 2 1 +25 +20.8 32
3 Benfica 13 8 5 0 +18 +16.2 29
4 Gil Vicente 12 7 2 3 +10 +3.4 23
5 Famalicao 12 5 5 2 +6 +5.5 20
6 Sp Braga 12 5 4 3 +12 +8.9 19
7 Moreirense 12 6 1 5 +1 -6.8 19
8 Guimaraes 12 5 2 5 -3 -3.5 17
9 Santa Clara 13 4 3 6 -3 +2.6 15
10 Alverca 12 4 2 6 -5 -0.6 14
11 Estoril 12 3 4 5 +1 -1.2 13
12 Rio Ave 12 2 7 3 -5 -8.6 13
13 Nacional 12 3 3 6 -5 -5.7 12
14 Estrela 12 2 5 5 -5 -0.8 11
15 Tondela 12 2 3 7 -13 -6.4 9
16 Casa Pia 13 2 3 8 -14 -11.7 9
17 Arouca 12 2 3 7 -21 -17.1 9
18 AVS 12 0 3 9 -21 -10.3 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

AVS Rio Ave
7′
🟨 Andreas Ndoj
30′
Clayton 0–1
Andre Luiz
Carlos Ponck 🟨
44′
Half-time 0–1
Jaume Grau 🟨
49′
1–1 O. Perea
G. Neiva
50′
56′
🟨 Francisco Petrasso
Jaume Grau 🟨
60′
Jaume Grau 🟥
60′
64′
🟨 Nelson Abbey
66′
🔁 A. Papakanellos
↦ N. Abbey
S. Bane 🔁
↦ G. Neiva
67′
67′
🔁 G. Liavas
↦ A. Ntoi
L. Rivas 🔁
↦ Kiki
76′
T. Galletto 🔁
↦ A. Algobia
76′
Leonardo Rivas 🟨
77′
79′
🔁 K. Zoabi
↦ B. Aguilera Zamora
Rúben Semedo 🟨
83′
83′
🔁 J. Graca
↦ O. Pohlmann
T. Akinsola 🔁
↦ O. Perea
85′
D. Duarte 🔁
↦ Tomane
85′
89′
🟨 Georgios Liavas
90′
Clayton 1–2
Cristian Castro 🟨
94′
98′
🟨 Karem Zoabi
99′
🟨 Clayton
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

AVS

3-4-2-1
99 Joao Goncalves G
26 Ponck D
35 R. Semedo D
42 C. Devenish D
21 G. Neiva M
27 A. Algobia M
15 J. Grau M
24 Kiki M
6 G. Assuncao F
14 O. Perea F
7 Tomane F
Bench (9)
93 Simao
2 D. Spencer
4 S. Bane
8 Pedro Lima
11 T. Akinsola
12 L. Rivas
18 Nene
19 T. Galletto
20 D. Duarte

Coach: Fábio Ricardo Gomes Fonseca

Rio Ave

3-4-3
1 C. Miszta G
23 F. Petrasso D
4 J. Panzo D
6 N. Abbey D
17 M. Vrousai M
5 A. Ntoi M
10 B. Aguilera Zamora M
3 N. Athanasiou M
11 Andre Luiz F
9 Clayton F
80 O. Pohlmann F
Bench (9)
29 A. Pastor
14 K. Zoabi
19 A. Papakanellos
20 J. Tome
21 J. Graca
32 J. Brabec
44 T. Nikitscher
54 G. Liavas
63 J. Lomboto

Coach: Sotiris Silaidopoulos

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,93
U
3,19
B ✓
2,37
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,09
U2,5
1,67
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Jose Bessa · 31 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.