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Champions League
Referee: O Grinfeeld
Shakhtar Donetsk
S U T
1–1
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Shakhtar Donetsk Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
33%
83%
Points per game
1,3
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 84%
100%
67%
Average goals
3,3
2,7
Scored
2,0
2,0
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,3
This season — Champions League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 67%
33%
100%
Points per game
1,3
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
100%
33%
Average goals
3,3
2,7
Scored
2,0
2,3
Conceded
1,3
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

42% Possession 58%
11 Shots 17
2 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
6 Corners 11
2 Offside 2
6 Free kicks against 8
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

5. Oct -22 Real Madrid – Shakhtar Donetsk 2–1

Match report

Shakhtar Donetsk Real Madrid
-5′
🟨 Éder Militão
Yukhym Konoplia 🟨
16′
Half-time 1–0
1–0 O. Zubkov ⚽
B. Mykhailichenko
46′
57′
🔁 Vinícius Júnior
↦ E. Hazard
57′
🔁 L. Modrić
↦ A. Tchouaméni
68′
🔁 D. Alaba
↦ F. Mendy
68′
🔁 Marco Asensio
↦ Rodrygo
68′
🔁 E. Camavinga
↦ F. Valverde
D. Sikan 🔁
↦ L. Traoré
77′
N. Đurasek 🔁
↦ H. Sudakov
81′
Lucas Taylor 🔁
↦ O. Zubkov
82′
I. Petryak 🔁
↦ M. Mudryk
85′
Artem Bondarenko 🟨
88′
90′
🟨 Toni Kroos
95′
⚽ A. Rüdiger 1–1
T. Kroos
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Shakhtar Donetsk

4-1-4-1
81 A. Trubin G
26 Y. Konoplya D
5 V. Bondar D
22 M. Matvienko D
15 B. Mykhailichenko D
6 T. Stepanenko M
11 O. Zubkov M
21 A. Bondarenko M
8 H. Sudakov M
10 M. Mudryk M
2 L. Traoré F
Bench (12)
14 D. Sikan
17 N. Đurasek
23 Lucas Taylor
34 I. Petryak
27 O. Ocheretko
32 E. Kozik
1 O. Shevchenko
19 A. Kulakov
16 D. Kryskiv
30 A. Pyatov
4 S. Kryvtsov
20 D. Topalov

Coach: I. Jovičević

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1
13 A. Lunin G
17 Lucas Vázquez D
22 A. Rüdiger D
6 Nacho D
23 F. Mendy D
18 A. Tchouaméni M
8 T. Kroos M
15 F. Valverde M
7 E. Hazard M
21 Rodrygo M
9 K. Benzema F
Bench (12)
20 Vinícius Júnior
10 L. Modrić
4 D. Alaba
11 Marco Asensio
12 E. Camavinga
24 M. Díaz
30 Lucas Cañizares
26 Luis López
2 Dani Carvajal
16 Odriozola
3 Éder Militão
5 Vallejo

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

O Grinfeeld · 20 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.