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Champions League
Referee: M Oliver
Paris SG
S S S U U
1–1
Full-time
Benfica
S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Benfica
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
1,8
2,8
Scored
1,3
2,2
Conceded
0,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,5
This season — Champions League · 3/7 matches
Win Ø 77%
67%
86%
Points per game
2,3
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
67%
57%
Both score Ø 79%
100%
57%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
2,0
2,4
Conceded
1,0
0,6
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

62% Possession 38%
7 Shots 7
3 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 3
0 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 2
3 Offside 3
5 Free kicks against 18
2 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

5. Oct -22 Benfica – Paris SG 1–1

Match report

Paris SG Benfica
21′
🟨 Nicolás Otamendi
Pablo Sarabia 🟨
29′
1–0 K. Mbappé ⚽
39′
43′
🟨 João Mário
Half-time 1–0
48′
🟨 Florentino Luís
60′
ℹ️ Rafa Silva
VAR: Penalty confirmed
Marco Verratti 🟨
61′
62′
⚽ João Mário 1–1
63′
🔁 Gilberto
↦ A. Bah
69′
🟨 Enzo Fernández
H. Ekitike 🔁
↦ Pablo Sarabia
74′
77′
🔁 Rodrigo Pinho
↦ Gonçalo Ramos
78′
🔁 J. Draxler
↦ Rafa
78′
🔁 Diogo Gonçalves
↦ Florentino
83′
🟨 Gilberto
Fabián Ruiz 🔁
↦ Vitinha
85′
N. Mukiele 🔁
↦ Juan Bernat
85′
Carlos Soler 🔁
↦ K. Mbappé
90′
93′
🔁 Chiquinho
↦ João Mário
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Paris SG

3-4-2-1
99 G. Donnarumma G
4 Sergio Ramos D
5 Marquinhos D
15 Danilo Pereira D
2 A. Hakimi M
17 Vitinha M
6 M. Verratti M
14 Juan Bernat M
19 Pablo Sarabia F
10 Neymar F
7 K. Mbappé F
Bench (9)
44 H. Ekitike
8 Fabián Ruiz
26 N. Mukiele
28 Carlos Soler
16 Sergio Rico
33 W. Zaïre-Emery
35 Ismaël Gharbi
31 E. Bitshiabu
1 K. Navas

Coach: C. Galtier

Benfica

4-2-3-1
99 O. Vlachodimos G
6 A. Bah D
66 António Silva D
30 N. Otamendi D
3 Álex Grimaldo D
61 Florentino M
13 E. Fernández M
20 João Mário M
27 Rafa M
8 F. Aursnes M
88 Gonçalo Ramos F
Bench (12)
2 Gilberto
18 Rodrigo Pinho
93 J. Draxler
17 Diogo Gonçalves
22 Chiquinho
23 M. Ristić
31 Gil Dias
77 Helton Leite
33 P. Musa
38 João Victor
25 J. Brooks
39 Henrique Araújo

Coach: R. Schmidt

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Oliver · 207 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.