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Champions League
Referee: C Turpin
Real Madrid
U S S S T
2–1
Full-time
Ath Madrid
U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,8
3,5
Scored
1,8
2,5
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 10/8 matches
Win Ø 73%
70%
75%
Points per game
2,1
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 90%
80%
100%
Both score Ø 73%
70%
75%
Average goals
4,1
4,0
Scored
2,6
2,5
Conceded
1,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,1
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,68 xG 0,20
51% Possession 49%
13 Shots 6
7 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
6 Corners 3
10 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

8. Feb -25 Real Madrid – Ath Madrid 1–1 29. Sep -24 Ath Madrid – Real Madrid 1–1 4. Feb -24 Real Madrid – Ath Madrid 1–1 18. Jan -24 Ath Madrid – Real Madrid 4–2 24. Sep -23 Ath Madrid – Real Madrid 3–1

Match report

Real Madrid Ath Madrid
1–0 Rodrygo ⚽
F. Valverde
4′
32′
⚽ J. Alvarez 1–1
Javi Galán
Half-time 2–1
2–1 Brahim Díaz ⚽
F. Mendy
55′
Brahim Díaz 🟨
56′
L. Modrić 🔁
↦ E. Camavinga
62′
64′
🔁 N. Molina
↦ G. Simeone
64′
🔁 C. Gallagher
↦ Samuel Lino
71′
🔁 Robin Le Normand
↦ A. Griezmann
75′
🔁 A. Sørloth
↦ Pablo Barrios
75′
🔁 Á. Correa
↦ R. De Paul
Lucas Vázquez 🔁
↦ F. Valverde
82′
Endrick 🔁
↦ Brahim Díaz
89′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-4-2
1 T. Courtois G
8 F. Valverde D
35 Raúl Asencio D
22 A. Rüdiger D
23 F. Mendy D
11 Rodrygo M
14 A. Tchouaméni M
6 E. Camavinga M
21 Brahim Díaz M
9 K. Mbappé F
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (8)
10 L. Modrić
17 Lucas Vázquez
16 Endrick
26 Fran González
13 A. Lunin
15 A. Güler
4 D. Alaba
20 Fran García

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
14 Marcos Llorente D
2 J. Giménez D
15 C. Lenglet D
21 Javi Galán D
22 G. Simeone M
5 R. De Paul M
8 Pablo Barrios M
12 Samuel Lino M
19 J. Alvarez F
7 A. Griezmann F
Bench (11)
16 N. Molina
4 C. Gallagher
24 Robin Le Normand
9 A. Sørloth
10 Á. Correa
11 T. Lemar
23 Reinildo
1 J. Musso
31 Antonio Gomis
17 Rodrigo Riquelme
20 A. Witsel

Coach: D. Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.