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Copa del Rey

Referee: Alejandro Hernández

Barcelona

S S S S S

4–4

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

2,5

2,7

Conceded

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Copa del Rey · 3/5 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

100%

60%

Both score Ø 27%

33%

20%

Average goals

5,0

3,2

Scored

4,7

3,0

Conceded

0,3

0,2

Goal diff per game

+4,3

+2,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–2

68% Possession 32%

16 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 7. · Ath Madrid 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	5	5	0	0	+14	15
2	Sociedad	5	5	0	0	+12	15
3	Osasuna	5	4	0	1	+6	12
4	Valencia	5	4	0	1	+2	12
5	Leganes	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Getafe	5	3	1	1	+0	10
7	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+13	9
8	Celta	4	3	0	1	+9	9
9	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+9	9
10	Vallecano	4	3	0	1	+6	9
11	Pontevedra	4	3	0	1	+6	9
12	Betis	4	3	0	1	+4	9
13	Almeria	4	3	0	1	+4	9
14	Elche	4	3	0	1	+4	9
15	Ourense CF	4	3	0	1	+1	9
16	Valladolid	3	2	0	1	+4	6
17	Las Palmas	3	2	0	1	+4	6
18	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+2	6
19	Barbastro	3	2	0	1	+2	6
20	Huesca	3	2	0	1	+2	6
21	Santander	3	2	0	1	+1	6
22	Ferrol	3	2	0	1	+1	6
23	Cartagena	3	2	0	1	+1	6
24	Marbella	3	2	0	1	+1	6
25	Eldense	3	2	0	1	+0	6
26	UD Logroñés	3	1	2	0	+1	5
27	Zaragoza	2	1	1	0	+4	4
28	Girona	2	1	1	0	+4	4
29	Estepona	2	1	1	0	+1	4
30	Granada	3	1	1	1	+1	4
31	Tenerife	3	1	1	1	+1	4
32	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
33	Castellon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
34	Zamora	2	1	1	0	+1	4
35	Orihuela	2	1	1	0	+1	4
36	Deportiva Minera	3	1	1	1	+0	4
37	Yeclano	2	1	0	1	+5	3
38	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	+4	3
39	Unionistas de Salamanca	2	1	0	1	+3	3
40	Burgos	2	1	0	1	+2	3
41	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
42	Vic	2	1	0	1	+2	3
43	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	+2	3
44	Barakaldo	2	1	0	1	+1	3
45	Cultural Leonesa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
46	Ceuta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Europa Fc	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Gimnastic	2	1	0	1	+0	3
50	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
51	Parla Escuela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
52	Conquense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
53	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-1	3
54	Cacereño	2	1	0	1	-1	3
55	Astur	2	1	0	1	-1	3
56	Manises	2	1	0	1	-1	3
57	Sant Andreu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
58	Ejea	2	1	0	1	-1	3
59	UD San Pedro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
60	Villamuriel	2	1	0	1	-4	3
61	Salamanca UDS	2	1	0	1	-6	3
62	Ponferradina	3	0	2	1	-2	2
63	Cordoba	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Selaya	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Baztán	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Playas Sotavento	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Escobedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Oviedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Ath Bilbao	2	0	1	1	-1	1
70	Olot	2	0	1	1	-2	1
71	Real Ávila	2	0	1	1	-2	1
72	San Tirso	2	0	1	1	-4	1
73	Gévora	2	0	1	1	-5	1
74	Ontiñena	2	0	1	1	-7	1
75	Lanzarote	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Langreo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Bergantiños	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	SS Reyes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Don Benito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Atlético Paso	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Sonseca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Aurrerá Vitoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Alcorcon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Xerez	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Dolorense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Cuarte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Badalona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Promesas EDF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Cortes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Llanera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Móstoles	1	0	0	1	-3	0
111	Levante	1	0	0	1	-3	0
112	CD Coria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
113	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
114	Mallorca	1	0	0	1	-3	0
115	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-3	0
116	L'Hospitalet	1	0	0	1	-4	0
117	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
118	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-4	0
119	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-4	0
120	Sporting Mahón	1	0	0	1	-4	0
121	Extremadura 1924	1	0	0	1	-4	0
122	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
123	Tudelano	1	0	0	1	-5	0
124	Jove Español	1	0	0	1	-5	0
125	Laredo	1	0	0	1	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Pontevedra	4	3	0	1	+6	9
2	Sociedad	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Barbastro	3	2	0	1	+2	6
4	Ourense CF	3	2	0	1	+0	6
5	UD Logroñés	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Estepona	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+5	3
8	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+2	3
11	Vic	2	1	0	1	+2	3
12	Elche	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Santander	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Europa Fc	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Marbella	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Conquense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	Cacereño	2	1	0	1	-1	3
19	Astur	2	1	0	1	-1	3
20	Sant Andreu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
21	Ejea	2	1	0	1	-1	3
22	UD San Pedro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
23	Villamuriel	2	1	0	1	-4	3
24	Salamanca UDS	2	1	0	1	-6	3
25	Zaragoza	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Baztán	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Zamora	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Orihuela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Escobedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Olot	2	0	1	1	-2	1
31	Real Ávila	2	0	1	1	-2	1
32	Ponferradina	2	0	1	1	-2	1
33	San Tirso	2	0	1	1	-4	1
34	Gévora	2	0	1	1	-5	1
35	Deportiva Minera	2	0	1	1	-5	1
36	Lanzarote	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Ath Bilbao	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Leganes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Ceuta	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Tenerife	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Cartagena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Cultural Leonesa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Barakaldo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Langreo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Bergantiños	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	SS Reyes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Don Benito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Granada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Cadiz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Huesca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Atlético Paso	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Yeclano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Sonseca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Parla Escuela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Xerez	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Ferrol	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Dolorense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Cuarte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Eldense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Badalona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Cortes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Llanera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Móstoles	1	0	0	1	-3	0
77	CD Coria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Manises	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	L'Hospitalet	1	0	0	1	-4	0
82	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
83	Extremadura 1924	1	0	0	1	-4	0
84	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
85	Valencia	1	0	0	1	-5	0
86	Tudelano	1	0	0	1	-5	0
87	Jove Español	1	0	0	1	-5	0
88	Laredo	1	0	0	1	-6	0
89	Ontiñena	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	4	4	0	0	+9	12
2	Valencia	4	4	0	0	+7	12
3	Osasuna	5	4	0	1	+6	12
4	Leganes	4	3	1	0	+3	10
5	Getafe	5	3	1	1	+0	10
6	Celta	4	3	0	1	+9	9
7	Sociedad	3	3	0	0	+8	9
8	Vallecano	4	3	0	1	+6	9
9	Betis	4	3	0	1	+4	9
10	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+9	6
11	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+6	6
12	Valladolid	3	2	0	1	+4	6
13	Las Palmas	3	2	0	1	+4	6
14	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
15	Ferrol	2	2	0	0	+3	6
16	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
17	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+2	6
18	Almeria	2	2	0	0	+2	6
19	Eldense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
20	Cartagena	2	2	0	0	+2	6
21	Girona	2	1	1	0	+4	4
22	Granada	2	1	1	0	+2	4
23	Tenerife	2	1	1	0	+2	4
24	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
25	Castellon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
26	Yeclano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
27	Deportiva Minera	1	1	0	0	+5	3
28	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	+4	3
29	Zaragoza	1	1	0	0	+4	3
30	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+4	3
31	Cadiz	1	1	0	0	+3	3
32	Burgos	2	1	0	1	+2	3
33	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
34	Barakaldo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Manises	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	Cultural Leonesa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Santander	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Ourense CF	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Gimnastic	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Zamora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Orihuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Marbella	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Andorra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Parla Escuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Ceuta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Cordoba	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Selaya	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Ontiñena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Playas Sotavento	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Ath Bilbao	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Ponferradina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Oviedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Aurrerá Vitoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Alcorcon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Promesas EDF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Levante	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Mallorca	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-4	0
69	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-4	0
70	Sporting Mahón	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.