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Copa del Rey

Referee: Guillermo Cuadra

Ath Madrid

T U S T S

4–2

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

2,0

2,2

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Copa del Rey · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

4,0

Scored

3,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

41% Possession 59%

18 Shots 19

12 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 7

7 Goalkeeper saves 8

0 Corners 9

3 Offside 2

20 Free kicks against 13

6 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 33. · Real Madrid 35. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Mallorca	4	4	0	0	+11	12
2	Celta	4	4	0	0	+9	12
3	Ath Bilbao	4	4	0	0	+9	12
4	Girona	4	4	0	0	+8	12
5	Sevilla	4	4	0	0	+8	12
6	Sociedad	4	4	0	0	+5	12
7	Getafe	4	3	0	1	+12	9
8	Alaves	4	3	0	1	+10	9
9	Vallecano	4	3	0	1	+8	9
10	Tenerife	4	3	0	1	+3	9
11	Valencia	4	3	0	1	+2	9
12	Villarreal	3	2	1	0	+6	7
13	Unionistas de Salamanca	4	2	1	1	+2	7
14	Betis	3	2	0	1	+11	6
15	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+3	6
16	Espanol	3	2	0	1	+3	6
17	Elche	3	2	0	1	+2	6
18	Las Palmas	3	2	0	1	+2	6
19	Ferrol	3	2	0	1	+2	6
20	Castellon	3	2	0	1	+1	6
21	Lugo	3	2	0	1	+1	6
22	Barbastro	3	2	0	1	+1	6
23	Huesca	3	2	0	1	+1	6
24	Burgos	3	2	0	1	+0	6
25	Arandina	3	2	0	1	+0	6
26	Eibar	3	1	1	1	+1	4
27	Melilla	2	1	1	0	+1	4
28	Alcorcon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
29	Malaga	3	1	1	1	+0	4
30	Granada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
31	Valladolid	2	1	0	1	+2	3
32	Levante	2	1	0	1	+2	3
33	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Buñol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
35	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	La Coruna	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+1	3
38	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
39	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	3
40	Sestao River	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Eldense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Oviedo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Antequera	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Andratx	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Villanovense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Atzeneta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Yeclano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Tudelano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Terrassa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
50	Amorebieta	2	1	0	1	-1	3
51	Mirandes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
52	Arenteiro	2	1	0	1	-1	3
53	Osasuna	2	1	0	1	-1	3
54	Atlético Astorga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
55	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
56	Cayón	2	1	0	1	-2	3
57	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
58	Valle Egüés	2	1	0	1	-2	3
59	Boiro	2	1	0	1	-3	3
60	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-4	3
61	Atlético Lugones	2	1	0	1	-5	3
62	Deportivo Murcia	2	1	0	1	-8	3
63	Hernán Cortés	2	1	0	1	-9	3
64	Tardienta	2	1	0	1	-11	3
65	Cartagena	3	0	2	1	-1	2
66	Santander	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	Barakaldo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	Gimnastic	1	0	1	0	+0	1
73	Zamora	2	0	1	1	-1	1
74	Rubí	2	0	1	1	-1	1
75	Cadiz	2	0	1	1	-1	1
76	Linares Deportivo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
77	Orihuela	2	0	1	1	-3	1
78	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Tarazona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Manresa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Ursaria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Real Murcia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Recreativo Huelva	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Covadonga	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Manchego	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Marbella	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Gernika	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Sanluqueño	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Europa Fc	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
120	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
121	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
122	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
123	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
124	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
125	Arosa	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barbastro	3	2	0	1	+1	6
2	Arandina	3	2	0	1	+0	6
3	Unionistas de Salamanca	3	1	1	1	+0	4
4	Girona	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Ath Bilbao	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Tenerife	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Lugo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Andratx	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Villanovense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Atzeneta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Castellon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Ferrol	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Yeclano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Tudelano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Malaga	2	1	0	1	+0	3
18	Terrassa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
19	Atlético Astorga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
20	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
21	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
22	Valle Egüés	2	1	0	1	-2	3
23	Hernán Cortés	2	1	0	1	-9	3
24	Tardienta	2	1	0	1	-11	3
25	Melilla	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Alcorcon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Barakaldo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Zamora	2	0	1	1	-1	1
32	Rubí	2	0	1	1	-1	1
33	Orihuela	2	0	1	1	-3	1
34	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Cartagena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Sestao River	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Manresa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Ursaria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Levante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Buñol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Valencia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Getafe	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Linares Deportivo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Arenteiro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Covadonga	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Manchego	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Marbella	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Osasuna	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Huesca	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Elche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Gernika	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Antequera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Europa Fc	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Burgos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
77	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Cayón	1	0	0	1	-3	0
82	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
83	Boiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
84	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
85	Arosa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
86	Chiclana	1	0	0	1	-5	0
87	Atlético Lugones	1	0	0	1	-6	0
88	Deportivo Murcia	1	0	0	1	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Mallorca	4	4	0	0	+11	12
2	Celta	4	4	0	0	+9	12
3	Sevilla	4	4	0	0	+8	12
4	Sociedad	4	4	0	0	+5	12
5	Getafe	3	3	0	0	+14	9
6	Vallecano	4	3	0	1	+8	9
7	Ath Bilbao	3	3	0	0	+7	9
8	Girona	3	3	0	0	+6	9
9	Valencia	3	3	0	0	+4	9
10	Villarreal	3	2	1	0	+6	7
11	Betis	3	2	0	1	+11	6
12	Alaves	3	2	0	1	+9	6
13	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
14	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+3	6
15	Burgos	2	2	0	0	+3	6
16	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
17	Las Palmas	3	2	0	1	+2	6
18	Tenerife	2	2	0	0	+2	6
19	Eibar	2	1	1	0	+4	4
20	Buñol	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Granada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
23	Valladolid	2	1	0	1	+2	3
24	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Deportivo Murcia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	La Coruna	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Antequera	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Ferrol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Sestao River	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
36	Atlético Lugones	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	3
38	Melilla	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Cayón	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Amorebieta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Osasuna	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Alcorcon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Chiclana	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Boiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Lugo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Arenteiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Eldense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Oviedo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Mirandes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
50	Cartagena	2	0	2	0	+0	2
51	Santander	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Linares Deportivo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Malaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Gimnastic	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Cadiz	2	0	1	1	-1	1
57	Tarazona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Real Murcia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Recreativo Huelva	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Sanluqueño	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.