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Champions League
Referee: I Peljto
Arsenal
U U S S U
3–0
Full-time
Real Madrid
T S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
3,3
3,8
Scored
2,3
2,0
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 10/12 matches
Win Ø 69%
70%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 68%
60%
75%
Both score Ø 54%
40%
67%
Average goals
3,1
3,8
Scored
2,5
2,3
Conceded
0,6
1,4
Goal diff per game
+1,9
+0,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,59 xG 0,50
53% Possession 47%
12 Shots 9
11 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 3
0 Offside 2
8 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Arsenal Real Madrid
Half-time 0–0
Thomas Partey 🟨
54′
1–0 D. Rice ⚽
58′
68′
🟨 Eduardo Camavinga
2–0 D. Rice ⚽
70′
71′
🔁 Lucas Vázquez
↦ L. Modrić
L. Trossard 🔁
↦ B. Saka
74′
3–0 Mikel Merino ⚽
M. Lewis-Skelly
75′
K. Tierney 🔁
↦ D. Rice
80′
80′
🔁 Fran García
↦ D. Alaba
85′
🔁 Brahim Díaz
↦ Rodrygo
B. White 🔁
↦ J. Timber
91′
94′
🟨 Eduardo Camavinga
94′
🟥 Eduardo Camavinga
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Arsenal

4-3-3
22 David Raya G
12 J. Timber D
2 W. Saliba D
15 J. Kiwior D
49 M. Lewis-Skelly D
8 M. Ødegaard M
5 T. Partey M
41 D. Rice M
7 B. Saka F
23 Mikel Merino F
11 Gabriel Martinelli F
Bench (10)
19 L. Trossard
3 K. Tierney
4 B. White
53 E. Nwaneri
32 Neto
17 O. Zinchenko
36 T. Setford
20 Jorginho
37 N. Butler-Oyedeji
44 J. Gower

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Real Madrid

4-4-2
1 T. Courtois G
8 F. Valverde D
35 Raúl Asencio D
22 A. Rüdiger D
4 D. Alaba D
11 Rodrygo M
10 L. Modrić M
6 E. Camavinga M
5 J. Bellingham M
9 K. Mbappé F
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (12)
17 Lucas Vázquez
20 Fran García
21 Brahim Díaz
16 Endrick
36 Chema Andrés
26 Fran González
39 Lorenzo Aguado
15 A. Güler
31 Jacobo Ramón
30 Gonzalo García
18 Jesús Vallejo
34 Sergio Mestre

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Peljto · 38 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.