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Champions League
Referee: S Marciniak
Ath Madrid
S U S T T
1–0
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
33%
83%
Points per game
1,3
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,3
2,7
Scored
1,8
1,8
Conceded
1,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/11 matches
Win Ø 70%
67%
73%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 91%
100%
82%
Both score Ø 76%
78%
73%
Average goals
3,9
4,0
Scored
2,3
2,5
Conceded
1,6
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,36 xG 1,15
38% Possession 62%
17 Shots 10
8 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 7
10 Corners 10
1 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 16
4 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

4. Mar -25 Real Madrid – Ath Madrid 2–1 8. Feb -25 Real Madrid – Ath Madrid 1–1 29. Sep -24 Ath Madrid – Real Madrid 1–1 4. Feb -24 Real Madrid – Ath Madrid 1–1 18. Jan -24 Ath Madrid – Real Madrid 4–2

Match report

Ath Madrid Real Madrid
1–0 C. Gallagher ⚽
1′
39′
🟨 Aurélien Tchouaméni
Half-time 1–0
59′
🟨 Vinícius Júnior
65′
🔁 Lucas Vázquez
↦ L. Modrić
65′
🔁 E. Camavinga
↦ A. Tchouaméni
Giuliano Simeone 🟨
66′
Clément Lenglet 🟨
68′
70′
❌ Vinícius Júnior
penalty missed
79′
🔁 Brahim Díaz
↦ Rodrygo
83′
🔁 Fran García
↦ F. Mendy
Samuel Lino 🔁
↦ C. Gallagher
85′
A. Sørloth 🔁
↦ A. Griezmann
89′
Á. Correa 🔁
↦ G. Simeone
89′
Robin Le Normand 🔁
↦ C. Lenglet
90′
N. Molina 🔁
↦ R. De Paul
94′
César Azpilicueta 🔁
↦ Reinildo
98′
César Azpilicueta 🟨
114′
Marcos Llorente 🟨
115′
115′
🟨 Lucas Vázquez
115′
🔁 Endrick
↦ Vinícius Júnior
121′
⚽ K. Mbappé 1–1
2–1 A. Sørloth ⚽
122′
123′
⚽ J. Bellingham 2–2
J. Alvarez ❌
penalty missed
124′
125′
⚽ F. Valverde 2–3
3–3 Á. Correa ⚽
126′
Marcos Llorente ❌
penalty missed
127′
128′
❌ Lucas Vázquez
penalty missed
128′
🟨 Kylian Mbappé
129′
⚽ A. Rüdiger 3–4
Full-time 3–4

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
14 Marcos Llorente D
2 J. Giménez D
15 C. Lenglet D
23 Reinildo D
22 G. Simeone M
5 R. De Paul M
8 Pablo Barrios M
4 C. Gallagher M
7 A. Griezmann F
19 J. Alvarez F
Bench (12)
12 Samuel Lino
9 A. Sørloth
10 Á. Correa
16 N. Molina
24 Robin Le Normand
3 César Azpilicueta
11 T. Lemar
17 Rodrigo Riquelme
1 J. Musso
20 A. Witsel
21 Javi Galán
27 I. Kostis

Coach: D. Simeone

Real Madrid

4-4-2
1 T. Courtois G
8 F. Valverde D
35 Raúl Asencio D
22 A. Rüdiger D
23 F. Mendy D
11 Rodrygo M
10 L. Modrić M
14 A. Tchouaméni M
5 J. Bellingham M
9 K. Mbappé F
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (12)
17 Lucas Vázquez
6 E. Camavinga
21 Brahim Díaz
20 Fran García
16 Endrick
15 A. Güler
30 Gonzalo García
36 Chema Andrés
31 Jacobo Ramón
26 Fran González
4 D. Alaba
13 A. Lunin

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Marciniak · 126 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.