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Champions League
Referee: José Sánchez
Aston Villa
S S S T S
3–2
Full-time
Paris SG
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 92%
83%
100%
Points per game
2,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,8
Scored
2,5
3,0
Conceded
0,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+2,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 11/13 matches
Win Ø 63%
64%
62%
Points per game
2,0
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
55%
54%
Both score Ø 37%
36%
38%
Average goals
2,7
3,0
Scored
1,8
2,2
Conceded
0,9
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,05 xG 1,69
34% Possession 66%
17 Shots 14
9 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 5
2 Offside 5
15 Free kicks against 3
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

9. Apr -25 Paris SG – Aston Villa 3–1

Match report

Aston Villa Paris SG
11′
⚽ A. Hakimi 0–1
27′
⚽ Nuno Mendes 0–2
O. Dembélé
1–2 Y. Tielemans ⚽
J. McGinn
34′
John McGinn 🟨
42′
Half-time 2–2
2–2 J. McGinn ⚽
Pau Torres
55′
3–2 E. Konsa ⚽
M. Rashford
57′
58′
🔁 D. Doué
↦ B. Barcola
Marco Asensio 🔁
↦ J. McGinn
66′
J. Ramsey 🔁
↦ A. Onana
67′
O. Watkins 🔁
↦ M. Rashford
76′
I. Maatsen 🔁
↦ L. Digne
76′
R. Barkley 🔁
↦ Y. Tielemans
88′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
23 E. Martínez G
2 M. Cash D
4 E. Konsa D
14 Pau Torres D
12 L. Digne D
44 B. Kamara M
24 A. Onana M
27 M. Rogers M
8 Y. Tielemans M
7 J. McGinn M
9 M. Rashford F
Bench (11)
21 Marco Asensio
41 J. Ramsey
11 O. Watkins
22 I. Maatsen
6 R. Barkley
52 S. Proctor
26 L. Bogarde
5 T. Mings
25 R. Olsen
3 A. Disasi
31 L. Bailey

Coach: Unai Emery

Paris SG

4-3-3
1 G. Donnarumma G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
51 W. Pacho D
25 Nuno Mendes D
87 João Neves M
17 Vitinha M
8 Fabián Ruiz M
7 K. Kvaratskhelia F
10 O. Dembélé F
29 B. Barcola F
Bench (11)
14 D. Doué
49 I. Mbaye
24 S. Mayulu
33 W. Zaïre-Emery
19 Lee Kang-In
9 Gonçalo Ramos
35 Beraldo
39 M. Safonov
80 Arnau Tenas
3 P. Kimpembe
21 L. Hernández

Coach: Luis Enrique

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

José Sánchez · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.