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Champions League
Referee: M Mariani
Dortmund
T S S T U
3–1
Full-time
Barcelona
S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Barcelona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,7
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,7
2,7
Scored
1,8
2,3
Conceded
1,8
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 13/11 matches
Win Ø 68%
54%
82%
Points per game
1,8
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
77%
91%
Both score Ø 59%
54%
64%
Average goals
3,5
4,5
Scored
2,2
3,3
Conceded
1,4
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,85 xG 0,49
46% Possession 54%
18 Shots 7
11 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 8
8 Corners 4
4 Offside 2
14 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

9. Apr -25 Barcelona – Dortmund 4–0 11. Dec -24 Dortmund – Barcelona 2–3

Match report

Dortmund Barcelona
Pascal Groß ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
10′
1–0 S. Guirassy ⚽
11′
35′
🟨 Frenkie de Jong
Half-time 2–0
2–0 S. Guirassy ⚽
R. Bensebaini
49′
54′
⚽ R. Bensebaini 3–0
own goal
Felix Nmecha 🟨
56′
59′
🔁 Pedri
↦ Gavi
J. Duranville 🔁
↦ M. Beier
64′
G. Reyna 🔁
↦ F. Nmecha
64′
70′
🔁 Ferran Torres
↦ Lamine Yamal
70′
🔁 Eric García
↦ Fermín López
4–0 S. Guirassy ⚽
76′
J. Brandt 🔁
↦ Yan Couto
77′
J. Gittens 🔁
↦ K. Adeyemi
77′
86′
🔁 Dani Olmo
↦ R. Lewandowski
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Dortmund

3-4-2-1
1 G. Kobel G
25 N. Süle D
3 W. Anton D
5 R. Bensebaini D
2 Yan Couto M
8 F. Nmecha M
13 P. Groß M
24 D. Svensson M
14 M. Beier F
27 K. Adeyemi F
9 S. Guirassy F
Bench (11)
16 J. Duranville
7 G. Reyna
10 J. Brandt
43 J. Gittens
35 M. Lotka
38 K. Wätjen
6 S. Özcan
26 J. Ryerson
33 A. Meyer
39 F. Mané
42 A. Kabar

Coach: N. Kovač

Barcelona

4-2-3-1
25 W. Szczęsny G
23 J. Koundé D
4 R. Araujo D
2 Pau Cubarsí D
35 Gerard Martín D
21 F. de Jong M
6 Gavi M
19 Lamine Yamal M
16 Fermín López M
11 Raphinha M
9 R. Lewandowski F
Bench (12)
8 Pedri
7 Ferran Torres
24 Eric García
20 Dani Olmo
18 Pau Víctor
14 Pablo Torre
13 Iñaki Peña
5 Iñigo Martínez
31 D. Kochen
15 A. Christensen
10 Ansu Fati
32 Héctor Fort

Coach: H. Flick

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Mariani · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.