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Champions League
Referee: F Zwayer
Paris SG
S U T S T
2–1
Full-time
Arsenal
S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Arsenal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,0
2,8
Scored
1,3
1,7
Conceded
1,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 15/13 matches
Win Ø 65%
60%
69%
Points per game
1,9
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
53%
62%
Both score Ø 39%
40%
38%
Average goals
3,0
2,9
Scored
2,1
2,3
Conceded
0,9
0,6
Goal diff per game
+1,1
+1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,74 xG 2,90
46% Possession 54%
11 Shots 19
6 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 8
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 6
1 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

29. Apr -25 Arsenal – Paris SG 0–1 1. Oct -24 Arsenal – Paris SG 2–0

Match report

Paris SG Arsenal
Nuno Mendes 🟨
18′
26′
🟨 Declan Rice
1–0 Fabián Ruiz ⚽
27′
Half-time 1–0
56′
🟨 Myles Lewis-Skelly
Achraf Hakimi ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
66′
68′
🔁 R. Calafiori
↦ M. Lewis-Skelly
68′
🔁 L. Trossard
↦ Gabriel Martinelli
Vitinha ❌
penalty missed
69′
O. Dembélé 🔁
↦ B. Barcola
70′
2–0 A. Hakimi ⚽
O. Dembélé
72′
L. Hernández 🔁
↦ D. Doué
74′
76′
⚽ B. Saka 2–1
83′
🔁 B. White
↦ J. Timber
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 🟨
86′
86′
🟨 Bukayo Saka
86′
🟨 Riccardo Calafiori
Gonçalo Ramos 🔁
↦ Nuno Mendes
88′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Paris SG

4-3-3
1 G. Donnarumma G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
51 W. Pacho D
25 Nuno Mendes D
87 João Neves M
17 Vitinha M
8 Fabián Ruiz M
14 D. Doué F
29 B. Barcola F
7 K. Kvaratskhelia F
Bench (11)
10 O. Dembélé
21 L. Hernández
9 Gonçalo Ramos
35 Beraldo
39 M. Safonov
24 S. Mayulu
80 Arnau Tenas
48 A. Tape
19 Lee Kang-In
49 I. Mbaye
33 W. Zaïre-Emery

Coach: Luis Enrique

Arsenal

4-3-3
22 David Raya G
12 J. Timber D
2 W. Saliba D
15 J. Kiwior D
49 M. Lewis-Skelly D
8 M. Ødegaard M
5 T. Partey M
41 D. Rice M
7 B. Saka F
23 Mikel Merino F
11 Gabriel Martinelli F
Bench (12)
33 R. Calafiori
19 L. Trossard
4 B. White
36 T. Setford
20 Jorginho
30 R. Sterling
37 N. Butler-Oyedeji
3 K. Tierney
17 O. Zinchenko
45 J. Henry-Francis
32 Neto
53 E. Nwaneri

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Zwayer · 152 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.