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Champions League
Referee: F Letexier
Real Madrid
S U T T S
1–2
Full-time
Arsenal
S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Arsenal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,8
2,5
Scored
1,8
1,7
Conceded
2,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 13/11 matches
Win Ø 68%
62%
73%
Points per game
1,8
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 71%
77%
64%
Both score Ø 49%
62%
36%
Average goals
3,7
3,1
Scored
2,2
2,5
Conceded
1,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,41 xG 2,03
66% Possession 34%
18 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 6
10 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
10 Corners 4
2 Offside 1
18 Free kicks against 15
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

8. Apr -25 Arsenal – Real Madrid 3–0

Match report

Real Madrid Arsenal
David Alaba 🟨
4′
10′
ℹ️ Mikel Merino
VAR: Penalty confirmed
Raúl Asencio 🟨
11′
13′
❌ Bukayo Saka
penalty missed
Kylian Mbappé ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
27′
36′
🟨 David Raya
Half-time 0–0
Dani Ceballos 🔁
↦ Rodrygo
61′
Fran García 🔁
↦ D. Alaba
61′
Endrick 🔁
↦ Lucas Vázquez
61′
65′
⚽ B. Saka 0–1
Mikel Merino
1–1 Vinícius Júnior ⚽
67′
L. Modrić 🔁
↦ Raúl Asencio
74′
Brahim Díaz 🔁
↦ K. Mbappé
75′
77′
🔁 L. Trossard
↦ B. Saka
Antonio Rüdiger 🟨
85′
85′
🟨 Thomas Partey
93′
⚽ Gabriel Martinelli 1–2
Mikel Merino
95′
🔁 B. White
↦ J. Timber
95′
🔁 K. Tierney
↦ Gabriel Martinelli
95′
🔁 O. Zinchenko
↦ D. Rice
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-3-3
1 T. Courtois G
17 Lucas Vázquez D
35 Raúl Asencio D
22 A. Rüdiger D
4 D. Alaba D
8 F. Valverde M
14 A. Tchouaméni M
5 J. Bellingham M
11 Rodrygo F
9 K. Mbappé F
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (9)
19 Dani Ceballos
20 Fran García
16 Endrick
10 L. Modrić
21 Brahim Díaz
18 Jesús Vallejo
26 Fran González
15 A. Güler
34 Sergio Mestre

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Arsenal

4-3-3
22 David Raya G
12 J. Timber D
2 W. Saliba D
15 J. Kiwior D
49 M. Lewis-Skelly D
8 M. Ødegaard M
5 T. Partey M
41 D. Rice M
7 B. Saka F
23 Mikel Merino F
11 Gabriel Martinelli F
Bench (12)
19 L. Trossard
4 B. White
3 K. Tierney
17 O. Zinchenko
44 J. Gower
63 M. Rosiak
45 J. Henry-Francis
30 R. Sterling
53 E. Nwaneri
37 N. Butler-Oyedeji
32 Neto
36 T. Setford

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.