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Champions League
Referee: E Eskas
Qarabag
U T T S T
1–6
Full-time
Newcastle
T T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Qarabag Newcastle
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
4,5
3,8
Scored
1,3
1,7
Conceded
3,2
2,2
Goal diff per game
-1,8
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 14/8 matches
Win Ø 54%
57%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 73%
71%
75%
Both score Ø 54%
57%
50%
Average goals
3,9
3,0
Scored
2,0
2,1
Conceded
1,9
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,1
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–5

0,46 xG 5,69
42% Possession 58%
8 Shots 22
2 Shots on target 14
3 Blocked shots 5
8 Goalkeeper saves 1
8 Corners 6
0 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 10
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Qarabag Newcastle
3′
⚽ A. Gordon 0–1
D. Burn
8′
⚽ M. Thiaw 0–2
K. Trippier
Dani Bolt 🔁
↦ B. Mustafazada
22′
30′
ℹ️ Harvey Barnes
VAR: Penalty confirmed
32′
⚽ A. Gordon 0–3
33′
⚽ A. Gordon 0–4
45′
⚽ A. Gordon 0–5
Half-time 0–5
B. Huseynov 🔁
↦ Leandro Andrade
46′
1–5 E. Cafarquliyev ⚽
A. Zoubir
54′
Elvin Jafarguliyev ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
56′
68′
🔁 W. Osula
↦ A. Gordon
68′
🔁 J. Murphy
↦ A. Elanga
68′
🔁 J. Ramsey
↦ J. Willock
72′
⚽ J. Murphy 1–6
76′
🟨 Malick Thiaw
77′
🔁 Joelinton
↦ K. Trippier
E. Addai 🔁
↦ A. Zoubir
85′
Kady Borges 🔁
↦ J. Montiel
85′
87′
🔁 S. Neave
↦ H. Barnes
M. Qurbanly 🔁
↦ C. Duran
88′
Full-time 1–6

Line-ups

Qarabag

4-2-3-1
99 M. Kochalski G
2 Matheus Silva D
13 B. Mustafazada D
81 K. Medina D
44 E. Cafarquliyev D
35 Pedro Bicalho M
8 M. Jankovic M
15 Leandro Andrade M
9 J. Montiel M
10 A. Zoubir
17 C. Duran F
Bench (12)
89 A. Ramazanov
97 F. Buntic
3 S. Mmaee
11 E. Addai
18 Dani Bolt
20 Kady Borges
21 O. Kashchuk
22 M. Qurbanly
27 T. Bayramov
30 A. Huseynov
32 H. Cabrayilzada
55 B. Huseynov

Coach: Qurban Qurbanov

Newcastle

4-2-3-1
1 N. Pope G
2 K. Trippier D
12 M. Thiaw D
33 D. Burn D
3 L. Hall D
28 J. Willock M
8 S. Tonali M
20 A. Elanga M
27 N. Woltemade M
11 H. Barnes M
10 A. Gordon F
Bench (10)
32 A. Ramsdale
58 A. Harris
26 J. Ruddy
7 Joelinton
18 W. Osula
23 J. Murphy
37 A. Murphy
41 J. Ramsey
61 L. Shahar
62 S. Neave

Coach: Eddie Howe

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

E Eskas · 109 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
19,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,06 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.