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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Liverpool

S U S T S

4–1

Full-time

Newcastle

T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

2,7

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 41%

43%

39%

Points per game

1,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

61%

57%

Both score Ø 59%

61%

57%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,4

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,28 xG 0,36

54% Possession 46%

17 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 11

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 6. · Newcastle 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	24	16	5	3	+29	+26.1	53
2	Man City	23	14	4	5	+26	+15.7	46
3	Aston Villa	23	14	4	5	+10	-5.0	46
4	Chelsea	24	11	7	6	+15	+9.7	40
5	Man United	23	10	8	5	+7	+12.7	38
6	Liverpool	23	10	6	7	+3	+9.9	36
7	Fulham	23	10	4	9	+0	-6.6	34
8	Everton	24	9	7	8	-1	-8.9	34
9	Brentford	23	10	3	10	+3	+7.1	33
10	Newcastle	23	9	6	8	+3	+9.6	33
11	Sunderland	23	8	9	6	-2	-12.6	33
12	Bournemouth	24	8	9	7	-3	+3.1	33
13	Brighton	24	7	10	7	+2	+3.1	31
14	Tottenham	23	7	7	9	+2	-6.9	28
15	Crystal Palace	23	7	7	9	-4	+4.4	28
16	Leeds	24	6	8	10	-11	-1.2	26
17	Nott'm Forest	23	7	4	12	-11	-7.6	25
18	West Ham	24	5	5	14	-19	-14.6	20
19	Burnley	23	3	6	14	-19	-27.2	15
20	Wolves	24	1	5	18	-30	-10.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	12	9	2	1	+21	+12.5	29
2	Arsenal	12	9	2	1	+20	+14.5	29
3	Aston Villa	11	8	1	2	+9	+0.5	25
4	Brentford	12	7	3	2	+11	+7.2	24
5	Sunderland	11	6	5	0	+9	-2.6	23
6	Fulham	12	7	2	3	+7	-1.4	23
7	Newcastle	12	7	2	3	+5	+8.9	23
8	Bournemouth	12	6	4	2	+6	+8.2	22
9	Brighton	12	5	6	1	+7	+4.0	21
10	Man United	11	6	3	2	+7	+10.9	21
11	Chelsea	12	6	3	3	+7	+6.1	21
12	Liverpool	11	6	3	2	+5	+8.9	21
13	Leeds	12	5	4	3	+2	+5.6	19
14	Everton	12	4	4	4	-1	-2.6	16
15	Crystal Palace	12	2	6	4	-4	+6.7	12
16	Nott'm Forest	11	3	2	6	-5	+0.5	11
17	Burnley	12	2	4	6	-5	-11.0	10
18	West Ham	12	3	1	8	-10	-4.9	10
19	Tottenham	11	2	3	6	-1	-0.7	9
20	Wolves	12	1	2	9	-15	-3.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	12	7	3	2	+9	+11.6	24
2	Aston Villa	12	6	3	3	+1	-5.5	21
3	Chelsea	12	5	4	3	+8	+3.6	19
4	Tottenham	12	5	4	3	+3	-6.2	19
5	Everton	12	5	3	4	+0	-6.4	18
6	Man City	11	5	2	4	+5	+3.2	17
7	Man United	12	4	5	3	+0	+1.8	17
8	Crystal Palace	11	5	1	5	+0	-2.3	16
9	Liverpool	12	4	3	5	-2	+0.9	15
10	Nott'm Forest	12	4	2	6	-6	-8.2	14
11	Fulham	11	3	2	6	-7	-5.3	11
12	Bournemouth	12	2	5	5	-9	-5.0	11
13	Newcastle	11	2	4	5	-2	+0.7	10
14	Brighton	12	2	4	6	-5	-0.9	10
15	West Ham	12	2	4	6	-9	-9.6	10
16	Sunderland	12	2	4	6	-11	-10.0	10
17	Brentford	11	3	0	8	-8	-0.1	9
18	Leeds	12	1	4	7	-13	-6.9	7
19	Burnley	11	1	2	8	-14	-16.2	5
20	Wolves	12	0	3	9	-15	-7.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.