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Champions League
Referee: R Obrenovic
Qarabag
S S T U T
2–4
Full-time
Ajax
T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Qarabag Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,7
2,8
Scored
1,7
1,0
Conceded
2,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 11/5 matches
Win Ø 32%
64%
0%
Points per game
2,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
64%
60%
Both score Ø 38%
55%
20%
Average goals
3,4
3,4
Scored
2,1
0,2
Conceded
1,3
3,2
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-3,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,10 xG 1,60
47% Possession 53%
17 Shots 20
6 Shots on target 8
4 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 6
1 Offside 1
3 Free kicks against 14
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

24. Oct -24 Qarabag – Ajax 0–3

Match report

Qarabag Ajax
1–0 C. Duran ⚽
M. Jankovic
10′
39′
⚽ K. Dolberg 1–1
S. Steur
Half-time 1–1
46′
🟨 Youri Baas
2–1 Matheus Silva ⚽
47′
N. Akhundzade 🔁
↦ Leandro Andrade
59′
65′
🔁 Y. Regeer
↦ K. Itakura
65′
🔁 D. Konadu
↦ K. Dolberg
O. Kashchuk 🔁
↦ C. Duran
70′
76′
🔁 M. Godts
↦ R. Moro
76′
🔁 D. Klaassen
↦ S. Steur
79′
⚽ O. Gloukh 2–2
83′
⚽ A. Gaaei 2–3
D. Konadu
84′
🔁 K. Fitz-Jim
↦ J. Mokio
J. Montiel 🔁
↦ Pedro Bicalho
86′
Dani Bolt 🔁
↦ Matheus Silva
86′
T. Bayramov 🔁
↦ E. Cafarquliyev
86′
90′
⚽ O. Gloukh 2–4
M. Godts
Full-time 2–4

Line-ups

Qarabag

4-2-3-1
99 M. Kochalski G
2 Matheus Silva D
13 B. Mustafazada D
81 K. Medina D
44 E. Cafarquliyev D
35 Pedro Bicalho M
8 M. Jankovic M
15 Leandro Andrade M
10 A. Zoubir
11 E. Addai M
17 C. Duran F
Bench (11)
1 S. Mahammadaliyev
97 F. Buntic
3 S. Mmaee
6 Chriso
7 N. Akhundzade
9 J. Montiel
18 Dani Bolt
21 O. Kashchuk
22 M. Qurbanly
27 T. Bayramov
55 B. Huseynov

Coach: Qurban Qurbanov

Ajax

4-3-3
1 V. Jaros G
3 A. Gaaei D
30 A. Bouwman D
15 Y. Baas D
2 L. Rosa D
24 J. Mokio M
4 K. Itakura M
48 S. Steur M
10 O. Gloukh F
9 K. Dolberg F
7 R. Moro F
Bench (12)
12 J. Heerkens
22 R. Pasveer
5 O. Wijndal
6 Y. Regeer
11 M. Godts
17 O. Edvardsen
18 D. Klaassen
19 D. Konadu
21 B. van den Boomen
28 K. Fitz-Jim
43 R. Bounida
53 M. van der Lans

Coach: Oscar Garcia Junyent

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

R Obrenovic · 32 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.