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Champions League
Referee: J Sanchez
Atalanta
S S S T S
4–1
Full-time
Dortmund
S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,2
3,3
Scored
1,5
2,2
Conceded
0,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 44%
44%
44%
Points per game
1,4
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
56%
67%
Both score Ø 45%
33%
56%
Average goals
2,4
4,2
Scored
1,1
2,3
Conceded
1,3
1,9
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,93 xG 0,93
44% Possession 56%
15 Shots 7
9 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 1
2 Offside 2
17 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 5
1 Red cards 2

Recent head-to-head meetings

17. Feb -26 Dortmund – Atalanta 2–0

Match report

Atalanta Dortmund
Giorgio Scalvini 🟥
-5′
-5′
🟨 Julian Ryerson
-5′
🟥 Nico Schlotterbeck
1–0 G. Scamacca ⚽
L. Bernasconi
5′
13′
🟨 Ramy Bensebaini
2–0 D. Zappacosta ⚽
45′
Half-time 2–0
53′
🟨 Emre Can
3–0 M. Pasalic ⚽
M. De Roon
57′
60′
🔁 C. Chukwuemeka
↦ J. Brandt
60′
🔁 F. Silva
↦ M. Beier
69′
🟨 Fábio Silva
Isak Hien 🟨
70′
70′
🔁 Y. Couto
↦ J. Ryerson
70′
🔁 K. Adeyemi
↦ J. Bellingham
N. Krstovic 🔁
↦ G. Scamacca
72′
H. Ahanor 🔁
↦ S. Kolasinac
73′
75′
⚽ K. Adeyemi 3–1
C. Chukwuemeka
B. Djimsiti 🔁
↦ G. Scalvini
77′
K. Sulemana 🔁
↦ N. Zalewski
85′
4–1 L. Samardzic ⚽
90′
Nikola Krstović ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
96′
97′
🟨 Ramy Bensebaini
97′
🟥 Ramy Bensebaini
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Atalanta

3-4-2-1
29 M. Carnesecchi G
42 G. Scalvini D
4 I. Hien D
23 S. Kolasinac D
77 D. Zappacosta M
15 M. De Roon M
8 M. Pasalic M
47 L. Bernasconi M
10 L. Samardzic F
59 N. Zalewski F
9 G. Scamacca F
Bench (12)
31 F. Rossi
57 M. Sportiello
3 O. Kossounou
5 M. Bakker
6 Y. Musah
7 K. Sulemana
13 Ederson
16 R. Bellanova
19 B. Djimsiti
45 D. Vavassori
69 H. Ahanor
90 N. Krstovic

Coach: Raffaele Palladino

Dortmund

3-4-2-1
1 G. Kobel G
23 E. Can D
3 W. Anton D
5 R. Bensebaini D
26 J. Ryerson M
7 J. Bellingham M
8 F. Nmecha M
24 D. Svensson M
14 M. Beier F
10 J. Brandt F
9 S. Guirassy F
Bench (12)
31 S. Ostrzinski
33 A. Meyer
2 Y. Couto
4 N. Schlotterbeck
6 S. Ozcan
17 C. Chukwuemeka
20 M. Sabitzer
21 F. Silva
27 K. Adeyemi
40 S. Inacio
47 E. Benkara
49 L. Reggiani

Coach: Niko Kovac

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

J Sanchez · 36 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,7 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.