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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Welz

Dortmund

T S T S S

4–0

Full-time

Mainz

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

1,8

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 46%

67%

24%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

52%

Both score Ø 55%

52%

57%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,32 xG 1,51

55% Possession 45%

14 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 2

0 Offside 5

10 Free kicks against 5

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 2. · Mainz 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	21	17	3	1	+60	+43.4	54
2	Dortmund	21	14	6	1	+23	+14.7	48
3	Hoffenheim	21	13	3	5	+16	-1.4	42
4	RB Leipzig	21	12	3	6	+12	+8.1	39
5	Stuttgart	21	12	3	6	+10	+4.4	39
6	Leverkusen	20	11	3	6	+12	+10.6	36
7	Freiburg	21	8	6	7	-1	+3.7	30
8	Ein Frankfurt	21	7	7	7	-5	-3.1	28
9	Union Berlin	21	6	7	8	-8	+1.7	25
10	FC Koln	21	6	5	10	-4	-4.0	23
11	Hamburg	20	5	7	8	-8	-5.5	22
12	M'gladbach	21	5	7	9	-9	-5.1	22
13	Augsburg	21	6	4	11	-15	-15.6	22
14	Mainz	21	5	6	10	-8	-8.6	21
15	Wolfsburg	21	5	4	12	-15	-9.2	19
16	Werder Bremen	21	4	7	10	-17	-9.2	19
17	St Pauli	21	4	5	12	-15	-11.9	17
18	Heidenheim	21	3	4	14	-28	-12.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	9	1	1	+35	+23.1	28
2	Dortmund	10	8	2	0	+14	+11.3	26
3	Stuttgart	10	7	2	1	+3	+2.7	23
4	Hoffenheim	10	7	0	3	+11	+2.7	21
5	RB Leipzig	10	7	0	3	+10	+5.9	21
6	Freiburg	10	6	3	1	+8	+9.4	21
7	Leverkusen	10	6	1	3	+10	+11.3	19
8	Hamburg	10	4	4	2	+4	+2.0	16
9	Augsburg	11	4	3	4	-5	-8.1	15
10	FC Koln	11	4	2	5	+2	+1.9	14
11	Ein Frankfurt	10	4	2	4	-1	+2.5	14
12	Union Berlin	11	3	5	3	-1	+3.1	14
13	Werder Bremen	10	3	4	3	-6	+3.1	13
14	Mainz	11	3	3	5	-1	+2.1	12
15	St Pauli	10	3	3	4	-6	-1.8	12
16	M'gladbach	11	2	4	5	-8	-4.3	10
17	Wolfsburg	11	2	3	6	-6	-2.9	9
18	Heidenheim	11	2	3	6	-14	-7.8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	8	2	0	+25	+20.2	26
2	Dortmund	11	6	4	1	+9	+3.4	22
3	Hoffenheim	11	6	3	2	+5	-4.1	21
4	RB Leipzig	11	5	3	3	+2	+2.2	18
5	Leverkusen	10	5	2	3	+2	-0.8	17
6	Stuttgart	11	5	1	5	+7	+1.7	16
7	Ein Frankfurt	11	3	5	3	-4	-5.6	14
8	M'gladbach	10	3	3	4	-1	-0.8	12
9	Union Berlin	10	3	2	5	-7	-1.4	11
10	Wolfsburg	10	3	1	6	-9	-6.3	10
11	FC Koln	10	2	3	5	-6	-6.0	9
12	Mainz	10	2	3	5	-7	-10.8	9
13	Freiburg	11	2	3	6	-9	-5.7	9
14	Augsburg	10	2	1	7	-10	-7.4	7
15	Werder Bremen	11	1	3	7	-11	-12.3	6
16	Hamburg	10	1	3	6	-12	-7.5	6
17	St Pauli	11	1	2	8	-9	-10.1	5
18	Heidenheim	10	1	1	8	-14	-5.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.