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Champions League
Referee: A Hernandez
Paris SG
S S U S T
5–2
Full-time
Chelsea
S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Chelsea
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
3,5
4,0
Scored
1,8
2,7
Conceded
1,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 10/8 matches
Win Ø 57%
50%
63%
Points per game
1,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 78%
80%
75%
Both score Ø 72%
80%
63%
Average goals
4,1
3,4
Scored
2,6
2,1
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,1
+0,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,90 xG 1,57
58% Possession 42%
9 Shots 9
8 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 3
2 Offside 2
14 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Paris SG Chelsea
1–0 B. Barcola ⚽
J. Neves
10′
28′
⚽ M. Gusto 1–1
E. Fernandez
2–1 O. Dembele ⚽
40′
Half-time 2–2
57′
⚽ E. Fernandez 2–2
P. Neto
K. Kvaratskhelia 🔁
↦ D. Doue
62′
Lee Kang-In 🔁
↦ O. Dembele
69′
3–2 Vitinha ⚽
K. Kvaratskhelia
74′
S. Mayulu 🔁
↦ B. Barcola
78′
L. Hernandez 🔁
↦ W. Zaire-Emery
78′
83′
🔁 L. Delap
↦ Joao Pedro
83′
🔁 R. Lavia
↦ C. Palmer
4–2 K. Kvaratskhelia ⚽
W. Pacho
86′
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 🟨
88′
88′
🔁 A. Garnacho
↦ M. Gusto
5–2 K. Kvaratskhelia ⚽
A. Hakimi
90′
Full-time 5–2

Line-ups

Paris SG

4-3-3
39 M. Safonov G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
51 W. Pacho D
25 N. Mendes D
33 W. Zaire-Emery M
17 Vitinha M
87 J. Neves M
14 D. Doue F
10 O. Dembele F
29 B. Barcola F
Bench (11)
30 L. Chevalier
89 R. Marin
9 G. Ramos
24 S. Mayulu
27 D. Fernandez
21 L. Hernandez
7 K. Kvaratskhelia
19 Lee Kang-In
6 I. Zabarnyi
4 L. Beraldo
49 I. Mbaye

Coach: Enrique Luis

Chelsea

4-2-3-1
12 F. Jorgensen G
27 M. Gusto D
29 W. Fofana D
23 T. Chalobah D
3 M. Cucurella D
24 R. James M
25 M. Caicedo M
10 C. Palmer M
8 E. Fernandez M
7 P. Neto M
20 Joao Pedro F
Bench (12)
50 M. Merrick
1 R. Sanchez
5 B. Badiashile
49 A. Garnacho
17 Andrey Santos
19 M. Sarr
38 M. Guiu
4 T. Adarabioyo
9 L. Delap
45 R. Lavia
21 J. Hato
34 J. Acheampong

Coach: Liam Rosenior

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

A Hernandez · 22 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.