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Champions League
Referee: M Mariani
Real Madrid
S T S T S
3–0
Full-time
Man City
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Man City
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,0
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,8
Scored
1,7
2,2
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 10/8 matches
Win Ø 67%
70%
63%
Points per game
2,1
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
70%
50%
Both score Ø 55%
60%
50%
Average goals
3,7
3,0
Scored
2,4
1,9
Conceded
1,3
1,1
Goal diff per game
+1,1
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,63 xG 0,59
40% Possession 60%
12 Shots 8
7 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
1 Corners 10
1 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 13
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

10. Dec -25 Real Madrid – Man City 1–2 19. Feb -25 Real Madrid – Man City 3–1 11. Feb -25 Man City – Real Madrid 2–3 17. Apr -24 Man City – Real Madrid 1–1 9. Apr -24 Real Madrid – Man City 3–3

Match report

Real Madrid Man City
1–0 F. Valverde ⚽
T. Courtois
20′
2–0 F. Valverde ⚽
Vinicius Junior
27′
3–0 F. Valverde ⚽
B. Diaz
42′
Half-time 3–0
F. Garcia 🔁
↦ F. Mendy
46′
46′
🔁 T. Reijnders
↦ Savinho
57′
🟨 Gianluigi Donnarumma
E. Camavinga 🔁
↦ A. Guler
70′
70′
🔁 R. Ait-Nouri
↦ B. Silva
70′
🔁 R. Cherki
↦ A. Semenyo
M. A. Moran 🔁
↦ T. Pitarch
76′
F. Mastantuono 🔁
↦ B. Diaz
76′
82′
🟨 Rayan Aït-Nouri
82′
🔁 O. Marmoush
↦ E. Haaland
D. Carvajal 🔁
↦ T. Alexander-Arnold
83′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-4-2
1 T. Courtois G
12 T. Alexander-Arnold D
22 A. Rudiger D
24 D. Huijsen D
23 F. Mendy D
8 F. Valverde M
45 T. Pitarch M
14 A. Tchouameni M
15 A. Guler M
21 B. Diaz F
7 Vinicius Junior F
Bench (12)
26 Fran
13 A. Lunin
2 D. Carvajal
6 E. Camavinga
37 M. A. Moran
30 F. Mastantuono
38 C. Palacios
27 D. Aguado
20 F. Garcia
17 R. Asencio
16 G. Garcia
28 J. Cestero Sancho

Coach: Alvaro Arbeloa

Man City

4-1-3-2
25 G. Donnarumma G
45 A. Khusanov D
3 R. Dias D
15 M. Guehi D
33 N. O'Reilly D
16 Rodri M
26 Savinho M
20 B. Silva M
11 J. Doku M
42 A. Semenyo F
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (12)
13 M. Bettinelli
1 J. Trafford
4 T. Reijnders
21 R. Ait-Nouri
27 M. Nunes
5 J. Stones
6 N. Ake
47 P. Foden
7 O. Marmoush
14 Nico
10 R. Cherki
68 M. Alleyne

Coach: Pep Guardiola

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Mariani · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.