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Ligue 1

Referee: A Kherradji

Paris SG

U S S T S

3–0

Full-time

Metz

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

2,2

0,7

Conceded

1,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 44%

73%

14%

Points per game

2,3

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

55%

59%

Both score Ø 48%

41%

55%

Average goals

3,1

3,2

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

0,9

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,41 xG 0,09

67% Possession 33%

17 Shots 3

7 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 1

3 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 2. · Metz 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	23	17	1	5	+24	+14.9	52
2	Paris SG	22	16	3	3	+30	+23.6	51
3	Lyon	22	14	3	5	+16	+10.4	45
4	Marseille	23	12	4	7	+17	+9.2	40
5	Lille	22	10	4	8	+4	+7.0	34
6	Monaco	23	10	4	9	+2	+5.5	34
7	Rennes	22	9	7	6	-1	-2.0	34
8	Strasbourg	22	9	4	9	+7	+7.5	31
9	Toulouse	23	8	7	8	+6	+4.1	31
10	Lorient	22	8	7	7	-4	+0.1	31
11	Brest	23	8	6	9	-3	+0.8	30
12	Angers	22	8	5	9	-5	-12.9	29
13	Le Havre	22	6	8	8	-7	-6.4	26
14	Nice	22	6	5	11	-13	-11.3	23
15	Paris FC	23	5	8	10	-13	-12.3	23
16	Auxerre	22	4	5	13	-13	-7.2	17
17	Nantes	22	3	5	14	-20	-13.1	14
18	Metz	22	3	4	15	-27	-17.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	12	10	0	2	+15	+12.8	30
2	Paris SG	10	9	1	0	+23	+13.9	28
3	Lyon	11	9	0	2	+12	+9.7	27
4	Marseille	11	7	3	1	+16	+8.2	24
5	Monaco	12	7	1	4	+6	+7.3	22
6	Lorient	11	6	4	1	+6	+4.8	22
7	Rennes	11	6	3	2	+10	+6.3	21
8	Brest	12	6	3	3	+5	+8.6	21
9	Lille	11	6	2	3	+5	+7.7	20
10	Angers	11	6	2	3	+4	-1.6	20
11	Le Havre	12	5	5	2	+4	+5.5	20
12	Strasbourg	10	6	1	3	+10	+11.1	19
13	Toulouse	12	4	5	3	+4	+5.5	17
14	Nice	11	4	4	3	+0	-1.6	16
15	Auxerre	11	3	2	6	-2	+2.0	11
16	Paris FC	11	2	4	5	-8	-3.9	10
17	Metz	11	2	3	6	-8	-3.8	9
18	Nantes	11	1	2	8	-12	-7.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	7	2	3	+7	+9.7	23
2	Lens	11	7	1	3	+9	+2.2	22
3	Lyon	11	5	3	3	+4	+0.7	18
4	Marseille	12	5	1	6	+1	+0.9	16
5	Toulouse	11	4	2	5	+2	-1.4	14
6	Lille	11	4	2	5	-1	-0.7	14
7	Paris FC	12	3	4	5	-5	-8.4	13
8	Rennes	11	3	4	4	-11	-8.3	13
9	Strasbourg	12	3	3	6	-3	-3.6	12
10	Monaco	11	3	3	5	-4	-1.8	12
11	Brest	11	2	3	6	-8	-7.9	9
12	Nantes	11	2	3	6	-8	-5.7	9
13	Angers	11	2	3	6	-9	-11.2	9
14	Lorient	11	2	3	6	-10	-4.7	9
15	Nice	11	2	1	8	-13	-9.7	7
16	Auxerre	11	1	3	7	-11	-9.1	6
17	Le Havre	10	1	3	6	-11	-11.9	6
18	Metz	11	1	1	9	-19	-14.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.