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Champions League
Referee: B Bastien
Bayern Munich
S S S S U
4–1
Full-time
Atalanta
T U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Atalanta
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
83%
17%
Points per game
2,7
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 92%
83%
100%
Average goals
4,5
4,2
Scored
3,3
1,8
Conceded
1,2
2,3
Goal diff per game
+2,2
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/11 matches
Win Ø 67%
89%
45%
Points per game
2,7
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 77%
89%
64%
Both score Ø 62%
78%
45%
Average goals
4,1
3,1
Scored
3,1
1,4
Conceded
1,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+2,1
-0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,61 xG 2,30
70% Possession 30%
25 Shots 14
8 Shots on target 8
8 Blocked shots 1
7 Goalkeeper saves 4
6 Corners 3
1 Offside 3
8 Free kicks against 4
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

10. Mar -26 Atalanta – Bayern Munich 1–6

Match report

Bayern Munich Atalanta
Harry Kane ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
22′
1–0 H. Kane ⚽
25′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 H. Kane ⚽
J. Stanisic
54′
D. Ofli 🔁
↦ A. Pavlovic
56′
3–0 L. Karl ⚽
L. Diaz
56′
57′
🔁 M. De Roon
↦ Ederson
57′
🔁 L. Samardzic
↦ C. De Ketelaere
4–0 L. Diaz ⚽
L. Karl
70′
71′
🔁 G. Raspadori
↦ K. Sulemana
71′
🔁 N. Krstovic
↦ G. Scamacca
N. Jackson 🔁
↦ H. Kane
72′
S. Gnabry 🔁
↦ T. Bischof
72′
F. Pavic 🔁
↦ J. Stanisic
72′
H. Ito 🔁
↦ R. Guerreiro
83′
83′
🔁 H. Ahanor
↦ G. Scalvini
86′
⚽ L. Samardzic 4–1
M. Pasalic
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
40 J. Urbig G
44 J. Stanisic D
3 Kim Min-Jae D
4 J. Tah D
20 T. Bischof D
8 L. Goretzka M
45 A. Pavlovic M
42 L. Karl M
22 R. Guerreiro M
14 L. Diaz M
9 H. Kane F
Bench (10)
35 J. Bartl
37 L. Prescott
27 K. Laimer
11 N. Jackson
7 S. Gnabry
2 D. Upamecano
21 H. Ito
41 V. Manuba
34 D. Ofli
43 F. Pavic

Coach: Vincent Kompany

Atalanta

3-4-2-1
57 M. Sportiello G
3 O. Kossounou D
4 I. Hien D
42 G. Scalvini D
16 R. Bellanova M
8 M. Pasalic M
13 Ederson M
47 L. Bernasconi M
17 C. De Ketelaere F
7 K. Sulemana F
9 G. Scamacca F
Bench (12)
29 M. Carnesecchi
31 F. Rossi
19 B. Djimsiti
23 S. Kolasinac
77 D. Zappacosta
18 G. Raspadori
69 H. Ahanor
15 M. De Roon
5 M. Bakker
90 N. Krstovic
59 N. Zalewski
10 L. Samardzic

Coach: Raffaele Palladino

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

B Bastien · 180 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.