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Serie B

Referee: S Galipo

Avellino

U U T S S

3–2

Full-time

Sudtirol

T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Avellino Sudtirol

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,2

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 29%

30%

27%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

50%

37%

Both score Ø 52%

53%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,06 xG 1,39

57% Possession 43%

8 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 28

5 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Avellino 10. · Sudtirol 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	31	20	7	4	+37	+30.5	67
2	Monza	31	19	7	5	+24	+13.0	64
3	Frosinone	31	17	11	3	+28	+9.1	62
4	Palermo	31	16	10	5	+24	+10.6	58
5	Catanzaro	30	14	10	6	+13	+1.9	52
6	Modena	30	13	8	9	+16	+9.6	47
7	Juve Stabia	31	9	15	7	-2	-0.4	42
8	Cesena	31	11	7	13	-8	+3.5	40
9	Sudtirol	30	8	14	8	+2	-4.0	38
10	Avellino	30	9	9	12	-14	-15.5	36
11	Padova	31	8	10	13	-10	-10.0	34
12	Mantova	31	9	7	15	-11	+0.3	34
13	Empoli	31	7	12	12	-6	+1.1	33
14	Carrarese	30	7	12	11	-6	-8.5	33
15	Sampdoria	30	7	10	13	-11	-1.6	31
16	Virtus Entella	30	7	10	13	-14	-10.4	31
17	Bari	31	7	10	14	-17	-18.6	31
18	Spezia	31	7	9	15	-13	-1.6	30
19	Reggiana	31	7	9	15	-16	-7.2	30
20	Pescara	30	5	11	14	-16	-1.8	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	16	14	0	2	+26	+16.8	42
2	Monza	15	12	2	1	+19	+9.8	38
3	Palermo	16	11	4	1	+21	+8.1	37
4	Frosinone	15	9	4	2	+17	+6.8	31
5	Catanzaro	15	8	6	1	+10	+2.7	30
6	Juve Stabia	15	6	8	1	+7	+3.5	26
7	Modena	16	7	4	5	+10	+1.5	25
8	Virtus Entella	15	6	6	3	+4	-2.8	24
9	Mantova	16	7	3	6	-1	+3.6	24
10	Sampdoria	15	6	5	4	+2	+2.3	23
11	Avellino	15	6	4	5	-3	-6.9	22
12	Carrarese	15	5	6	4	+5	+1.6	21
13	Sudtirol	15	5	5	5	+3	-4.5	20
14	Bari	15	5	5	5	+0	-7.9	20
15	Empoli	16	3	10	3	+4	+5.4	19
16	Cesena	15	5	4	6	-2	+5.1	19
17	Reggiana	15	4	6	5	-3	-2.6	18
18	Pescara	15	4	5	6	+0	-0.6	17
19	Spezia	16	4	5	7	-6	-0.6	17
20	Padova	15	3	7	5	-3	-4.8	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	16	8	7	1	+11	+2.3	31
2	Monza	16	7	5	4	+5	+3.2	26
3	Venezia	15	6	7	2	+11	+13.7	25
4	Modena	14	6	4	4	+6	+8.1	22
5	Catanzaro	15	6	4	5	+3	-0.8	22
6	Palermo	15	5	6	4	+3	+2.5	21
7	Cesena	16	6	3	7	-6	-1.6	21
8	Sudtirol	15	3	9	3	-1	+0.5	18
9	Padova	16	5	3	8	-7	-5.2	18
10	Juve Stabia	16	3	7	6	-9	-3.9	16
11	Empoli	15	4	2	9	-10	-4.3	14
12	Avellino	15	3	5	7	-11	-8.6	14
13	Spezia	15	3	4	8	-7	-1.1	13
14	Carrarese	15	2	6	7	-11	-10.2	12
15	Reggiana	16	3	3	10	-13	-4.6	12
16	Bari	16	2	5	9	-17	-10.8	11
17	Mantova	15	2	4	9	-10	-3.3	10
18	Pescara	15	1	6	8	-16	-1.1	9
19	Sampdoria	15	1	5	9	-13	-3.9	8
20	Virtus Entella	15	1	4	10	-18	-7.6	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.