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Champions League
Referee: C Turpin
Ath Madrid
T T T S T
1–2
Full-time
Barcelona
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Barcelona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
33%
83%
Points per game
1,0
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,2
4,5
Scored
1,5
3,2
Conceded
1,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 13/11 matches
Win Ø 55%
54%
55%
Points per game
1,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
85%
82%
Both score Ø 84%
85%
82%
Average goals
4,4
4,5
Scored
2,5
2,7
Conceded
1,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,77 xG 2,22
29% Possession 71%
15 Shots 15
5 Shots on target 8
4 Blocked shots 4
7 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 4
1 Offside 1
15 Free kicks against 8
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

8. Apr -26 Barcelona – Ath Madrid 0–2 4. Apr -26 Ath Madrid – Barcelona 1–2 3. Mar -26 Barcelona – Ath Madrid 3–0 12. Feb -26 Ath Madrid – Barcelona 4–0 2. Dec -25 Barcelona – Ath Madrid 3–1

Match report

Ath Madrid Barcelona
4′
⚽ Lamine Yamal 0–1
F. Torres
24′
⚽ F. Torres 0–2
D. Olmo
1–2 A. Lookman ⚽
M. Llorente
31′
Half-time 1–2
57′
ℹ️ Ferran Torres
VAR: Goal cancelled
N. Gonzalez 🔁
↦ A. Lookman
66′
A. Baena 🔁
↦ G. Simeone
66′
68′
🔁 R. Lewandowski
↦ F. Torres
68′
🔁 M. Rashford
↦ Fermín
69′
🟨 Pablo Gavi
A. Sorloth 🔁
↦ A. Griezmann
76′
79′
🟥 Eric García
79′
ℹ️ Eric García
VAR: Card upgrade
81′
🔁 F. de Jong
↦ Gavi
J. Cardoso 🔁
↦ Koke
89′
89′
🔁 R. Araujo
↦ J. Cancelo
89′
🔁 R. Bardghji
↦ D. Olmo
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
1 J. Musso G
16 N. Molina D
24 R. Le Normand D
15 C. Lenglet D
3 M. Ruggeri D
20 G. Simeone M
14 M. Llorente M
6 Koke M
22 A. Lookman M
7 A. Griezmann F
19 J. Alvarez F
Bench (12)
31 S. Esquivel
13 J. Oblak
9 A. Sorloth
23 N. Gonzalez
21 O. Vargas
32 J. Bonar
4 R. Mendoza
10 A. Baena
11 T. Almada
5 J. Cardoso
34 J. Diaz
30 D. Martinez

Coach: Diego Simeone

Barcelona

4-2-3-1
13 J. Garcia G
23 J. Kounde D
24 E. Garcia D
18 G. Martin D
2 J. Cancelo D
6 Gavi M
8 Pedri M
10 Lamine Yamal M
20 D. Olmo M
16 Fermín M
7 F. Torres F
Bench (12)
25 W. Szczesny
31 D. Kochen
9 R. Lewandowski
21 F. de Jong
4 R. Araujo
28 R. Bardghji
36 A. Cortes
14 M. Rashford
3 A. Balde
17 M. Casado
43 T. Marques
42 X. Espart

Coach: Hansi Flick

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.