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Copa del Rey

Referee: R De Burgos

Barcelona

S T T S S

3–0

Full-time

Ath Madrid

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

4,2

Scored

2,2

2,7

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Copa del Rey · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 88%

75%

100%

Points per game

2,3

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 25%

25%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,5

3,3

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+2,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

71% Possession 29%

21 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

15 Corners 0

2 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 15. · Ath Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sociedad	6	5	1	0	+8	+3.8	16
2	Alaves	5	4	0	1	+12	+0.2	12
3	Ath Madrid	4	4	0	0	+11	+2.0	12
4	Valencia	5	4	0	1	+9	+0.1	12
5	Betis	5	4	0	1	+7	-2.5	12
6	Osasuna	4	3	1	0	+9	-2.9	10
7	Albacete	5	3	1	1	+4	–	10
8	Vallecano	4	3	0	1	+6	-1.4	9
9	La Coruna	4	3	0	1	+6	+0.6	9
10	Elche	4	3	0	1	+5	-0.3	9
11	Cultural Leonesa	4	3	0	1	+4	-0.9	9
12	Santander	4	3	0	1	+4	-2.4	9
13	Ath Bilbao	4	3	0	1	+2	+0.6	9
14	Burgos	4	3	0	1	+2	+0.4	9
15	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+1	+3.4	9
16	Getafe	3	2	0	1	+10	-0.3	6
17	Palma del Rio	3	2	0	1	+4	–	6
18	Eibar	3	2	0	1	+4	+0.3	6
19	Sant Just	3	2	0	1	+4	–	6
20	CF Talavera	3	2	0	1	+3	–	6
21	Granada	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.9	6
22	Huesca	3	2	0	1	+3	–	6
23	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.1	6
24	Eldense	3	2	0	1	+2	–	6
25	Ourense CF	3	2	0	1	+2	–	6
26	Mallorca	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.6	6
27	Atlético Baleares	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.5	6
28	Levante	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
29	Sp Gijon	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
30	Guadalajara	3	2	0	1	+0	-1.0	6
31	CD Sant Jordi	3	2	0	1	-2	–	6
32	Celta	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.1	5
33	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	+5	–	4
34	Puerto de Vega	3	1	1	1	+2	–	4
35	Sant Andreu	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.1	4
36	Antoniano	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
37	Real Murcia	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.4	4
38	Maracena	3	1	1	1	-3	–	4
39	CD Yuncos	3	1	1	1	-3	–	4
40	Deportivo Getxo	3	1	1	1	-6	–	4
41	Inter de Valdemoro	3	1	1	1	-9	–	4
42	Tenerife	2	1	0	1	+3	+0.1	3
43	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
44	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
45	Numancia	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
46	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
47	Ponferradina	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
48	Malaga	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
49	Extremadura 1924	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
50	Zaragoza	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
51	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
52	Ceuta	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
53	Real Madrid	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
54	SD Negreira	3	1	0	2	+0	–	3
55	Navalcarnero	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
56	Girona	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
57	Cartagena	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.0	3
58	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
59	Manises	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
60	Real Ávila	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
61	Cieza	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
62	Torrent	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
63	Sabadell	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
64	Portugalete	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
65	Textil Escudo	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
66	Los Garres	3	1	0	2	-4	–	3
67	Antequera	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
68	Ibiza	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
69	Atlético Astorga	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
70	Tarazona	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
71	UD Ourense	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
72	Europa Fc	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
73	Langreo	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
74	Quintanar del Rey	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
75	Betis Valladolid	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
76	Ebro	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
77	Universitario FC	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
78	Mirandes	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
79	Sporting Ceuta	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
80	Reddis	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
81	Ferrol	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
82	Campanario	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
83	Pontevedra	2	0	1	1	-3	–	1
84	Alberite	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
85	Orihuela	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
86	Constància	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
87	Mérida AD	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
88	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
89	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
90	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
91	Atlético Tordesillas	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
92	Atlètic Lleida	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
93	Castellon	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
94	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
95	Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
96	Caudal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
97	Cordoba	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
98	Puente Genil	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
99	Oviedo	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
100	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
101	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
102	Ucam Murcia	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
103	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
104	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
105	Estepona	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
106	Tropezón	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
107	Mutilvera	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
108	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
109	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
110	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
111	La Unión Atlético	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
112	Rayo Majadahonda	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
113	Azuaga	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
114	Lourdes	2	0	0	2	-3	–	0
115	Toledo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
116	Arenas Getxo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
117	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
118	San Fernando CD	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
119	Valle Egüés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
120	Roda	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
121	Sámano	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
122	SD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
123	RSD Alcalá	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
124	Atletico Calatayud	2	0	0	2	-6	–	0
125	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-6	–	0
126	Atlético Melilla	2	0	0	2	-10	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cultural Leonesa	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.9	6
2	Ourense CF	3	2	0	1	+2	–	6
3	Alaves	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.2	6
4	Atlético Baleares	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.5	6
5	Guadalajara	3	2	0	1	+0	-1.0	6
6	Sant Andreu	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.1	4
7	Antoniano	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
8	Albacete	3	1	1	1	+0	–	4
9	Real Murcia	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.4	4
10	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
11	Numancia	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
12	Puerto de Vega	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
13	Manises	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
14	Extremadura 1924	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
15	SD Negreira	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
16	Sant Just	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
17	Textil Escudo	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
18	Navalcarnero	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
19	CF Talavera	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
20	Burgos	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
21	Eldense	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
22	Real Ávila	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
23	La Coruna	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.6	3
24	Cieza	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
25	Palma del Rio	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
26	Torrent	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
27	Santander	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.4	3
28	Los Garres	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
29	Portugalete	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
30	CD Yuncos	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
31	Maracena	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
32	Betis	2	1	0	1	-4	-2.1	3
33	CD Sant Jordi	2	1	0	1	-4	–	3
34	Sociedad	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.9	1
35	Atlético Astorga	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
36	Alberite	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
37	Sporting Ceuta	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
38	UD Ourense	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
39	Langreo	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
40	Campanario	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
41	Quintanar del Rey	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
42	Ebro	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
43	Reddis	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
44	Deportivo Getxo	2	0	1	1	-7	–	1
45	Inter de Valdemoro	2	0	1	1	-11	–	1
46	Orihuela	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
47	Constància	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
48	Valencia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
49	Leganes	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
50	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
51	Cartagena	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
52	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
53	Betis Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
54	Atlético Tordesillas	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
55	Atlètic Lleida	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
56	Ath Bilbao	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
57	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
58	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
59	Tenerife	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
60	Caudal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
61	Puente Genil	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
62	Huesca	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
63	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
64	Granada	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.0	0
65	Universitario FC	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
66	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
67	Ucam Murcia	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
68	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
69	Estepona	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
70	Lourdes	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
71	Tropezón	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
72	Mutilvera	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
73	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
74	Sp Gijon	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
75	Sabadell	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
76	Ferrol	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
77	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
78	La Unión Atlético	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
79	Rayo Majadahonda	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
80	Azuaga	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
81	Atletico Calatayud	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
82	Toledo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
83	Pontevedra	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
84	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
85	San Fernando CD	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
86	Valle Egüés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
87	Roda	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
88	Sámano	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
89	SD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
90	RSD Alcalá	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
91	Atlético Melilla	1	0	0	1	-5	–	0
92	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-6	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sociedad	5	5	0	0	+8	+0.9	15
2	Valencia	4	4	0	0	+10	+0.9	12
3	Osasuna	4	3	1	0	+9	-2.9	10
4	Betis	3	3	0	0	+11	-0.4	9
5	Ath Madrid	3	3	0	0	+7	+2.0	9
6	Vallecano	4	3	0	1	+6	-1.4	9
7	Elche	4	3	0	1	+5	-0.3	9
8	Ath Bilbao	3	3	0	0	+3	+1.7	9
9	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+1	+3.4	9
10	Getafe	3	2	0	1	+10	-0.3	6
11	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+10	–	6
12	La Coruna	2	2	0	0	+6	–	6
13	Eibar	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
14	Granada	2	2	0	0	+5	-0.1	6
15	Santander	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
16	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
17	Albacete	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
18	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.1	6
19	Sp Gijon	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
20	Mallorca	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.6	6
21	Burgos	2	2	0	0	+2	–	6
22	Levante	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
23	Celta	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.1	5
24	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	+5	–	4
25	Palma del Rio	1	1	0	0	+5	–	3
26	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
27	CF Talavera	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
28	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
29	Sant Just	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
30	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
31	Inter de Valdemoro	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
32	Ponferradina	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
33	Eldense	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
34	CD Sant Jordi	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
35	Cultural Leonesa	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
36	Zaragoza	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
37	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
38	Malaga	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
39	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
40	Ceuta	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
41	Sabadell	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
42	Deportivo Getxo	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
43	Cartagena	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
44	Real Madrid	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
45	Girona	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
46	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
47	Antequera	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	Ibiza	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
49	Mirandes	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
50	Puerto de Vega	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
51	Maracena	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
52	Universitario FC	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
53	Tarazona	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
54	Pontevedra	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
55	Europa Fc	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
56	Ferrol	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
57	Betis Valladolid	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
58	CD Yuncos	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
59	Mérida AD	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
60	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
61	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
62	SD Negreira	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
63	Castellon	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
64	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
65	Lourdes	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
66	Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
67	Cordoba	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
68	Oviedo	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
69	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
70	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
71	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
72	Los Garres	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
73	Manises	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
74	Sporting Ceuta	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
75	Campanario	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
76	Arenas Getxo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
77	Atletico Calatayud	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
78	Alberite	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
79	Textil Escudo	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
80	Atlético Melilla	1	0	0	1	-5	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.