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La Liga

Referee: M Busquets

Ath Madrid

S S S T T

1–2

Full-time

Barcelona

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,5

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,3

3,8

Scored

2,2

3,0

Conceded

2,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 71%

59%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

45%

79%

Both score Ø 54%

48%

59%

Average goals

2,7

3,7

Scored

1,7

2,7

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,92 xG 2,52

33% Possession 67%

6 Shots 22

2 Shots on target 8

0 Blocked shots 7

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 9

4 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 11

6 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 4. · Barcelona 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	29	24	1	4	+50	+36.4	73
2	Real Madrid	30	22	3	5	+36	+32.5	69
3	Villarreal	29	18	4	7	+20	+9.8	58
4	Ath Madrid	29	17	6	6	+21	+12.3	57
5	Betis	30	11	12	7	+7	+10.9	45
6	Celta	29	10	11	8	+6	+4.1	41
7	Sociedad	30	11	8	11	+1	-1.0	41
8	Getafe	29	11	5	13	-6	-9.0	38
9	Espanol	30	10	8	12	-8	-2.6	38
10	Ath Bilbao	29	11	5	13	-9	+10.4	38
11	Osasuna	29	10	7	12	-1	-4.2	37
12	Vallecano	30	8	11	11	-6	+3.3	35
13	Valencia	29	9	8	12	-10	+1.8	35
14	Girona	29	8	10	11	-13	-9.5	34
15	Alaves	29	8	7	14	-11	-5.0	31
16	Sevilla	29	8	7	14	-12	-18.2	31
17	Mallorca	30	8	7	15	-12	-17.4	31
18	Elche	30	6	11	13	-9	-18.7	29
19	Levante	30	6	8	16	-16	-15.6	26
20	Oviedo	29	4	9	16	-28	-20.3	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	15	0	0	+39	+24.9	45
2	Ath Madrid	15	13	1	1	+22	+18.1	40
3	Real Madrid	15	13	0	2	+24	+21.5	39
4	Villarreal	15	12	1	2	+21	+9.6	37
5	Osasuna	14	8	4	2	+9	+6.1	28
6	Sociedad	15	8	3	4	+8	+5.7	27
7	Betis	15	7	5	3	+10	+9.4	26
8	Ath Bilbao	15	8	2	5	+2	+11.5	26
9	Elche	15	6	7	2	+8	-1.9	25
10	Mallorca	15	7	4	4	+4	+0.4	25
11	Vallecano	15	5	8	2	+6	+10.2	23
12	Valencia	14	6	5	3	+4	+10.8	23
13	Espanol	15	6	3	6	-3	+1.2	21
14	Alaves	14	5	5	4	+1	+0.8	20
15	Girona	14	5	4	5	-5	-7.0	19
16	Getafe	14	5	3	6	+1	-3.9	18
17	Celta	15	4	5	6	+2	+5.5	17
18	Sevilla	15	4	4	7	-3	-4.9	16
19	Levante	15	3	5	7	-8	-6.5	14
20	Oviedo	14	3	5	6	-8	-9.0	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	15	9	3	3	+12	+11.0	30
2	Barcelona	14	9	1	4	+11	+11.4	28
3	Celta	14	6	6	2	+4	-1.5	24
4	Villarreal	14	6	3	5	-1	+0.2	21
5	Getafe	15	6	2	7	-7	-5.1	20
6	Betis	15	4	7	4	-3	+1.4	19
7	Ath Madrid	14	4	5	5	-1	-5.8	17
8	Espanol	15	4	5	6	-5	-3.8	17
9	Girona	15	3	6	6	-8	-2.6	15
10	Sevilla	14	4	3	7	-9	-13.3	15
11	Sociedad	15	3	5	7	-7	-6.7	14
12	Levante	15	3	3	9	-8	-9.0	12
13	Ath Bilbao	14	3	3	8	-11	-1.1	12
14	Vallecano	15	3	3	9	-12	-6.8	12
15	Valencia	15	3	3	9	-14	-9.0	12
16	Alaves	15	3	2	10	-12	-5.8	11
17	Osasuna	15	2	3	10	-10	-10.3	9
18	Oviedo	15	1	4	10	-20	-11.3	7
19	Mallorca	15	1	3	11	-16	-17.8	6
20	Elche	15	0	4	11	-17	-16.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.