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Europa League
Referee: Anthony Taylor
Sp Braga
S S U S T
2–1
Full-time
Freiburg
S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Freiburg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
1,7
1,7
Conceded
1,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 18/12 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
33%
42%
Both score Ø 38%
33%
42%
Average goals
2,6
2,3
Scored
1,9
1,8
Conceded
0,7
0,6
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,39 xG 1,31
59% Possession 41%
13 Shots 10
6 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 1
2 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Sp Braga Freiburg
1–0 D. E. Tiknaz ⚽
V. Gomez
8′
Vítor Carvalho 🟨
16′
16′
⚽ V. Grifo 1–1
J. Beste
18′
🟨 Vincenzo Grifo
M. Dorgeles 🔁
↦ R. Horta
26′
Gustaf Lagerbielke ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
45′
Half-time 1–1
46′
🟨 Philipp Lienhart
Victor Gómez 🟨
57′
72′
🟨 Jordy Makengo
F. Navarro 🔁
↦ R. Zalazar
72′
81′
🔁 L. Holer
↦ Y. Suzuki
81′
🔁 D. Scherhant
↦ V. Grifo
2–1 M. Dorgeles ⚽
90′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Sp Braga

4-3-2-1
1 L. Hornicek G
2 V. Gomez D
14 G. Lagerbielke D
15 P. Oliveira D
6 Vitor Carvalho D
29 Gorby M
8 J. Moutinho M
34 D. E. Tiknaz M
10 R. Zalazar M
21 R. Horta M
18 P. Victor F
Bench (12)
12 T. Sa
36 A. Bellaarouch
5 L. Lelo
53 J. Noro
41 Y. da Rocha
70 R. Mordomo
80 Vasconcelos
20 M. Dorgeles
39 F. Navarro
9 A. El Ouazzani
96 A. Sousa
90 Luisinho

Coach: Carlos Vicens

Freiburg

4-2-3-1
1 N. Atubolu G
29 P. Treu D
28 M. Ginter D
3 P. Lienhart D
33 J. Makengo D
8 M. Eggestein M
44 J. Manzambi M
19 J. Beste M
14 Y. Suzuki M
32 V. Grifo M
31 I. Matanovic F
Bench (12)
21 F. Muller
24 J. Huth
27 N. Hofler
17 L. Kubler
9 L. Holer
26 M. Philipp
43 B. Ogbus
30 C. Gunter
5 A. Jung
7 D. Scherhant
22 C. Irie
69 R. Tarnutzer

Coach: Julian Schuster

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Anthony Taylor · 162 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
18,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.