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Conference League
Referee: R Jenkins
Magpies
S T U T
2–0
Full-time
Derry City
S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Magpies Derry City
Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches
Win Ø 38%
25%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
75%
33%
Both score Ø 54%
75%
33%
Average goals
2,8
2,0
Scored
1,0
1,2
Conceded
1,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match report

Magpies Derry City
23′
🟨 Mark Connolly
Jack Storer 🟨
36′
Half-time 0–0
Carlos Garcia 🟨
46′
Javi Forján 🔁
↦ Edu Salles
46′
1–0 A. Taylor ⚽
49′
61′
🔁 M. Duffy
↦ S. Diallo
Christian Orihuela 🔁
↦ J. Storer
64′
Dayle Coleing 🟨
80′
80′
🔁 D. Mullen
↦ P. Hoban
2–0 F. Zúñiga ⚽
81′
E. De Haro 🔁
↦ K. Ronco
82′
L. Coombes 🔁
↦ Carlos García
83′
85′
🔁 S. Todd
↦ S. McEleney
85′
🔁 C. Whelan
↦ D. Kelly
H. Stevens 🔁
↦ Juanje Argüez
93′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Magpies

4-3-3
23 D. Coleing G
32 K. Ronco M
4 Rubén Díaz D
3 A. Taylor D
5 F. Zúñiga
9 J. Storer F
8 Carlos García M
6 Ale Carrascal M
77 O. Bayode F
10 Edu Salles
7 Juanje Argüez M
Bench (10)
11 Javi Forján
22 Christian Orihuela
16 E. De Haro
15 L. Coombes
33 H. Stevens
13 C. Franz
1 M. Zappacosta
19 F. Villar
31 J. del Rio
44 A. Hernandez

Coach: N. Rooney

Derry City

4-3-3
1 B. Maher G
23 C. Dummigan D
6 M. Connolly D
16 S. McEleney D
14 B. Doherty D
15 S. Diallo M
8 W. Patching M
28 A. O'Reilly M
27 D. Kelly M
9 P. Hoban F
12 P. McMullan M
Bench (9)
7 M. Duffy
21 D. Mullen
24 S. Todd
11 C. Whelan
30 E. Ovendale
3 C. Coll
40 C. McCay
19 J. Davenport
26 T. Ryan

Coach: R. Higgins

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.