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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Aston Villa

U T U T T

0–3

Full-time

Man United

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,2

Scored

0,3

2,5

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,8

This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 33%

21%

45%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

64%

42%

Both score Ø 55%

61%

48%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,1

1,7

Conceded

1,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

33% Possession 67%

9 Shots 14

1 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 19. · Man United 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	34	30	2	2	+49	92
2	Man City	34	22	3	9	+52	69
3	Chelsea	34	18	6	10	+17	60
4	Leicester	34	17	8	9	+32	59
5	Man United	33	15	10	8	+23	55
6	Wolves	34	13	13	8	+8	52
7	Sheffield United	34	13	12	9	+2	51
8	Arsenal	34	12	14	8	+8	50
9	Tottenham	34	13	10	11	+8	49
10	Burnley	34	14	7	13	-8	49
11	Everton	34	12	9	13	-8	45
12	Southampton	34	13	5	16	-13	44
13	Newcastle	34	11	10	13	-15	43
14	Crystal Palace	34	11	9	14	-13	42
15	Brighton	34	8	12	14	-11	36
16	West Ham	34	8	7	19	-19	31
17	Watford	34	7	10	17	-22	31
18	Bournemouth	34	7	7	20	-27	28
19	Aston Villa	33	7	6	20	-26	27
20	Norwich	34	5	6	23	-37	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	17	0	0	+34	51
2	Man City	17	13	2	2	+38	41
3	Man United	17	10	5	2	+23	35
4	Leicester	17	10	4	3	+18	34
5	Tottenham	17	10	3	4	+15	33
6	Chelsea	17	9	3	5	+11	30
7	Arsenal	17	8	6	3	+10	30
8	Sheffield United	17	9	3	5	+7	30
9	Everton	17	8	6	3	+5	30
10	Burnley	17	8	3	6	+2	27
11	Newcastle	17	6	8	3	+3	26
12	Wolves	17	6	7	4	+3	25
13	Crystal Palace	17	6	4	7	-3	22
14	Watford	17	5	6	6	-2	21
15	Brighton	17	5	6	6	-2	21
16	West Ham	17	5	3	9	-5	18
17	Aston Villa	16	5	3	8	-8	18
18	Bournemouth	17	4	6	7	-9	18
19	Southampton	17	5	2	10	-16	17
20	Norwich	17	4	3	10	-12	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	13	2	2	+15	41
2	Chelsea	17	9	3	5	+6	30
3	Man City	17	9	1	7	+14	28
4	Wolves	17	7	6	4	+5	27
5	Southampton	17	8	3	6	+3	27
6	Leicester	17	7	4	6	+14	25
7	Burnley	17	6	4	7	-10	22
8	Sheffield United	17	4	9	4	-5	21
9	Man United	16	5	5	6	+0	20
10	Arsenal	17	4	8	5	-2	20
11	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	-10	20
12	Newcastle	17	5	2	10	-18	17
13	Tottenham	17	3	7	7	-7	16
14	Brighton	17	3	6	8	-9	15
15	Everton	17	4	3	10	-13	15
16	West Ham	17	3	4	10	-14	13
17	Bournemouth	17	3	1	13	-18	10
18	Watford	17	2	4	11	-20	10
19	Aston Villa	17	2	3	12	-18	9
20	Norwich	17	1	3	13	-25	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.