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Premier League

Referee: Paul Tierney

Aston Villa

T T T T U

1–2

Full-time

Chelsea

U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

0,8

2,0

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 36%

24%

48%

Points per game

0,9

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

69%

62%

Both score Ø 61%

62%

59%

Average goals

3,1

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

26% Possession 74%

8 Shots 19

4 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 10

9 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 19. · Chelsea 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	29	27	1	1	+45	82
2	Man City	29	19	3	7	+40	60
3	Leicester	30	16	6	8	+30	54
4	Chelsea	29	14	6	9	+12	48
5	Man United	30	12	10	8	+14	46
6	Wolves	30	11	13	6	+9	46
7	Sheffield United	30	11	11	8	+2	44
8	Tottenham	30	11	9	10	+7	42
9	Crystal Palace	30	11	9	10	-4	42
10	Arsenal	30	9	13	8	+0	40
11	Burnley	29	11	6	12	-6	39
12	Newcastle	30	10	8	12	-13	38
13	Everton	29	10	7	12	-9	37
14	Southampton	30	11	4	15	-14	37
15	Brighton	30	7	11	12	-7	32
16	Watford	30	6	10	14	-17	28
17	West Ham	30	7	6	17	-17	27
18	Bournemouth	30	7	6	17	-20	27
19	Aston Villa	29	7	5	17	-22	26
20	Norwich	30	5	6	19	-30	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	15	0	0	+28	45
2	Man City	14	10	2	2	+24	32
3	Leicester	15	9	3	3	+15	30
4	Man United	15	8	5	2	+17	29
5	Tottenham	15	8	3	4	+12	27
6	Arsenal	15	7	5	3	+6	26
7	Everton	14	7	4	3	+4	25
8	Chelsea	15	7	3	5	+7	24
9	Sheffield United	15	7	3	5	+4	24
10	Newcastle	15	6	6	3	+3	24
11	Burnley	15	7	2	6	+1	23
12	Wolves	15	5	7	3	+4	22
13	Crystal Palace	15	6	4	5	-1	22
14	Brighton	15	5	6	4	+3	21
15	Watford	15	4	6	5	-1	18
16	Aston Villa	14	5	3	6	-6	18
17	Bournemouth	15	4	5	6	-6	17
18	West Ham	15	4	3	8	-5	15
19	Norwich	15	4	3	8	-10	15
20	Southampton	15	4	2	9	-15	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	12	1	1	+17	37
2	Man City	15	9	1	5	+16	28
3	Leicester	15	7	3	5	+15	24
4	Chelsea	14	7	3	4	+5	24
5	Wolves	15	6	6	3	+5	24
6	Southampton	15	7	2	6	+1	23
7	Sheffield United	15	4	8	3	-2	20
8	Crystal Palace	15	5	5	5	-3	20
9	Man United	15	4	5	6	-3	17
10	Burnley	14	4	4	6	-7	16
11	Tottenham	15	3	6	6	-5	15
12	Arsenal	15	2	8	5	-6	14
13	Newcastle	15	4	2	9	-16	14
14	West Ham	15	3	3	9	-12	12
15	Everton	15	3	3	9	-13	12
16	Brighton	15	2	5	8	-10	11
17	Bournemouth	15	3	1	11	-14	10
18	Watford	15	2	4	9	-16	10
19	Aston Villa	15	2	2	11	-16	8
20	Norwich	15	1	3	11	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.