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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Southampton

T T S T T

2–0

Full-time

Watford

S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 35%

30%

40%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 45%

45%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%

15 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 1

4 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 13. · Watford 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	20	13	3	4	+16	42
2	Leicester	20	11	7	2	+12	40
3	Man City	20	12	3	5	+18	39
4	Tottenham	20	9	9	2	+18	36
5	West Ham	21	9	8	4	+9	35
6	Man United	21	9	7	5	+7	34
7	Crystal Palace	21	9	4	8	+3	31
8	Liverpool	20	8	6	6	-2	30
9	Watford	20	8	5	7	+3	29
10	Stoke	20	8	5	7	+0	29
11	Everton	20	6	9	5	+7	27
12	West Brom	20	7	5	8	-5	26
13	Southampton	20	6	6	8	+2	24
14	Chelsea	20	6	5	9	-3	23
15	Norwich	20	6	5	9	-9	23
16	Bournemouth	21	5	6	10	-14	21
17	Swansea	20	4	7	9	-9	19
18	Newcastle	21	4	6	11	-16	18
19	Sunderland	20	4	3	13	-17	15
20	Aston Villa	21	2	5	14	-20	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	8	0	2	+17	24
2	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+10	23
3	Tottenham	10	5	4	1	+11	19
4	Man United	10	5	4	1	+8	19
5	Leicester	10	5	4	1	+3	19
6	West Ham	10	4	4	2	+4	16
7	Norwich	10	4	3	3	+2	15
8	Liverpool	9	4	3	2	+0	15
9	Southampton	10	4	2	4	+4	14
10	Chelsea	10	4	2	4	+1	14
11	Watford	11	4	2	5	+1	14
12	Crystal Palace	11	4	2	5	+0	14
13	West Brom	11	4	2	5	-3	14
14	Everton	11	3	4	4	+3	13
15	Stoke	9	4	1	4	+1	13
16	Swansea	10	3	4	3	-3	13
17	Sunderland	10	3	2	5	+1	11
18	Newcastle	11	2	5	4	+0	11
19	Bournemouth	10	2	4	4	-5	10
20	Aston Villa	10	1	3	6	-6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	10	6	3	1	+9	21
2	Arsenal	10	6	1	3	+6	19
3	West Ham	11	5	4	2	+5	19
4	Tottenham	10	4	5	1	+7	17
5	Crystal Palace	10	5	2	3	+3	17
6	Stoke	11	4	4	3	-1	16
7	Watford	9	4	3	2	+2	15
8	Man City	10	4	3	3	+1	15
9	Man United	11	4	3	4	-1	15
10	Liverpool	11	4	3	4	-2	15
11	Everton	9	3	5	1	+4	14
12	West Brom	9	3	3	3	-2	12
13	Bournemouth	11	3	2	6	-9	11
14	Southampton	10	2	4	4	-2	10
15	Chelsea	10	2	3	5	-4	9
16	Norwich	10	2	2	6	-11	8
17	Newcastle	10	2	1	7	-16	7
18	Swansea	10	1	3	6	-6	6
19	Aston Villa	11	1	2	8	-14	5
20	Sunderland	10	1	1	8	-18	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.