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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Southampton

T T U T T

4–0

Full-time

Arsenal

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 47%

29%

65%

Points per game

1,2

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

47%

53%

Both score Ø 47%

47%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

35% Possession 65%

14 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

6 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 12. · Arsenal 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	18	11	5	2	+12	38
2	Arsenal	17	11	3	3	+17	36
3	Man City	18	11	2	5	+17	35
4	Tottenham	18	8	8	2	+17	32
5	Crystal Palace	18	9	3	6	+7	30
6	Man United	18	8	5	5	+6	29
7	Watford	18	8	5	5	+5	29
8	Liverpool	18	7	6	5	-1	27
9	Everton	18	6	8	4	+8	26
10	West Ham	18	6	8	4	+4	26
11	Stoke	18	7	5	6	+0	26
12	Southampton	17	5	6	6	+0	21
13	West Brom	18	5	5	8	-7	20
14	Bournemouth	18	5	5	8	-10	20
15	Chelsea	18	5	4	9	-6	19
16	Swansea	18	4	6	8	-8	18
17	Norwich	18	4	5	9	-12	17
18	Newcastle	18	4	5	9	-14	17
19	Sunderland	18	3	3	12	-18	12
20	Aston Villa	18	1	5	12	-17	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	8	0	2	+17	24
2	Tottenham	10	5	4	1	+11	19
3	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+7	17
4	Leicester	8	5	2	1	+3	17
5	Man United	8	4	3	1	+7	15
6	Liverpool	9	4	3	2	+0	15
7	Watford	9	4	2	3	+3	14
8	Chelsea	10	4	2	4	+1	14
9	Crystal Palace	9	4	1	4	+3	13
10	Stoke	9	4	1	4	+1	13
11	Swansea	10	3	4	3	-3	13
12	Everton	9	3	3	3	+4	12
13	Southampton	9	3	2	4	+0	11
14	West Ham	8	2	4	2	+1	10
15	Newcastle	10	2	4	4	+0	10
16	Bournemouth	9	2	4	3	-3	10
17	Norwich	8	2	3	3	-1	9
18	Sunderland	8	2	2	4	+0	8
19	West Brom	9	2	2	5	-5	8
20	Aston Villa	9	0	3	6	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	10	6	3	1	+9	21
2	Arsenal	9	6	1	2	+10	19
3	Crystal Palace	9	5	2	2	+4	17
4	West Ham	10	4	4	2	+3	16
5	Watford	9	4	3	2	+2	15
6	Everton	9	3	5	1	+4	14
7	Man United	10	4	2	4	-1	14
8	Tottenham	8	3	4	1	+6	13
9	Stoke	9	3	4	2	-1	13
10	Liverpool	9	3	3	3	-1	12
11	West Brom	9	3	3	3	-2	12
12	Man City	8	3	2	3	+0	11
13	Southampton	8	2	4	2	+0	10
14	Bournemouth	9	3	1	5	-7	10
15	Norwich	10	2	2	6	-11	8
16	Newcastle	8	2	1	5	-14	7
17	Swansea	8	1	2	5	-5	5
18	Chelsea	8	1	2	5	-7	5
19	Aston Villa	9	1	2	6	-10	5
20	Sunderland	10	1	1	8	-18	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.