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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Middlesbrough

U T U S T

0–3

Full-time

Liverpool

S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

4,3

Scored

1,0

2,8

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,3

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 40%

20%

60%

Points per game

1,0

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 63%

53%

73%

Average goals

1,9

3,8

Scored

0,9

2,5

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

37% Possession 63%

8 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 7

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 16. · Liverpool 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	15	12	1	2	+22	37
2	Arsenal	16	10	4	2	+20	34
3	Liverpool	15	9	4	2	+17	31
4	Man City	15	9	3	3	+13	30
5	Tottenham	15	7	6	2	+13	27
6	Man United	15	6	6	3	+4	24
7	Everton	16	6	5	5	+1	23
8	Bournemouth	16	6	3	7	-3	21
9	Watford	15	6	3	6	-5	21
10	West Brom	15	5	5	5	+2	20
11	Southampton	15	5	5	5	-1	20
12	Stoke	15	5	4	6	-5	19
13	Burnley	15	5	2	8	-10	17
14	Leicester	16	4	4	8	-6	16
15	Crystal Palace	15	4	3	8	-2	15
16	Middlesbrough	15	3	6	6	-3	15
17	West Ham	15	3	4	8	-14	13
18	Swansea	15	3	3	9	-12	12
19	Hull	15	3	3	9	-18	12
20	Sunderland	15	3	2	10	-13	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	8	7	0	1	+17	21
2	Liverpool	7	5	2	0	+15	17
3	Tottenham	7	5	2	0	+10	17
4	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+8	17
5	Bournemouth	8	5	1	2	+6	16
6	Everton	8	4	4	0	+6	16
7	Burnley	9	5	1	3	+4	16
8	Leicester	8	4	3	1	+7	15
9	Southampton	8	4	3	1	+3	15
10	Man United	8	3	4	1	+5	13
11	Watford	8	4	1	3	+1	13
12	Man City	7	3	3	1	+5	12
13	West Brom	7	3	2	2	+3	11
14	Stoke	7	3	1	3	-2	10
15	Swansea	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Hull	8	2	2	4	-6	8
17	West Ham	7	2	2	3	-7	8
18	Crystal Palace	7	2	1	4	+1	7
19	Middlesbrough	7	2	1	4	-1	7
20	Sunderland	7	2	1	4	-4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	6	0	2	+8	18
2	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+12	17
3	Chelsea	7	5	1	1	+5	16
4	Liverpool	8	4	2	2	+2	14
5	Man United	7	3	2	2	-1	11
6	Tottenham	8	2	4	2	+3	10
7	West Brom	8	2	3	3	-1	9
8	Stoke	8	2	3	3	-3	9
9	Middlesbrough	8	1	5	2	-2	8
10	Crystal Palace	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	Watford	7	2	2	3	-6	8
12	Everton	8	2	1	5	-5	7
13	Southampton	7	1	2	4	-4	5
14	West Ham	8	1	2	5	-7	5
15	Bournemouth	8	1	2	5	-9	5
16	Swansea	7	1	1	5	-9	4
17	Sunderland	8	1	1	6	-9	4
18	Hull	7	1	1	5	-12	4
19	Leicester	8	0	1	7	-13	1
20	Burnley	6	0	1	5	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.